创新药产业链行业研究框架培训

Summary of the Conference Call on the Innovative Drug Industry Industry Overview - The innovative drug industry is entering a new support cycle, with a stable surplus in the medical insurance fund and an increasing proportion of spending on innovative drugs, projected to be around 2% from 2018 to 2024, indicating significant growth potential [1][3] - The business development (BD) activity in China's innovative drug sector has significantly increased, with outbound transaction amounts approaching or exceeding 20% of the global total, expected to reach nearly 30% in the first half of 2025, enhancing the valuation of Chinese companies [1][3] Valuation Methods - The valuation of innovative drugs requires the use of Risk-Adjusted Net Present Value (RNPV) rather than traditional Price-to-Earnings (PE) or Price-to-Sales (PS) multiples, which are influenced by factors such as profit margins, peak sales velocity, discount rates, and perpetual growth rates [1][4][5] - The current reasonable PS multiple is approximately 5 times, but adjustments should be made based on product characteristics and competitive advantages [5] Investment Framework - The Chinese innovative chain investment framework consists of upstream life science services (instruments, reagents) and midstream Contract Research Organizations (CRO) and Contract Development and Manufacturing Organizations (CDMO), forming a complete pharmaceutical industry structure that promotes industrial upgrades [1][6] - CDMOs focus on drug production during clinical and commercialization stages, with a trend towards horizontal segmentation in the pharmaceutical industry, leading to vertical integration within the innovative drug supply chain [1][7][8] Market Dynamics - The innovative drug R&D environment in China is improving, with diversified funding sources. Biopharmaceutical financing is expected to rebound after hitting a low in the second and third quarters of 2024, with a resurgence of IPOs in Hong Kong and breakthroughs for unprofitable companies in the A-share market [1][9] - In the second quarter of 2025, the total amount of BD upfront payments exceeded biopharmaceutical financing by more than two times, indicating a shift in funding sources for innovative drug R&D [10][11] Opportunities in Early-Stage R&D - There is a notable increase in early-stage R&D investments as major pharmaceutical companies focus on BD to advance pipelines from early stages to clinical phases, enhancing the willingness to invest in innovative R&D [12] - Attention is recommended for large molecule industry chain targets, particularly antibody types such as bispecific antibodies and antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), with specific companies like Baidu, Baiaosai, and others highlighted as key focus areas [12]