中国基础材料监测-2025 年 8 月：供应端发力，2021 年以来首次全面环比涨价-China Basic Materials Monitor_ August 2025_ the power of supply work, 1st broad sequential price hikes since 2021

Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor - August 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Basic Materials industry, highlighting recent trends in commodity prices and demand dynamics. Key Points Demand and Supply Dynamics - End-user orderbooks remained stable month-over-month (MoM) as of mid-August, indicating a lack of inspiring demand, particularly in infrastructure and renewables sectors [1] - Current Chinese demand for cement and construction steel is estimated to be 3-7% lower year-over-year (YoY), while demand for copper and aluminum is 6-11% lower YoY. Flat steel demand has increased by 5% YoY [1] - The average prices of main commodities have increased by 2-13% sequentially in August, marking the first broad price hikes since April 2021 [1] Price Trends - Significant price increases were noted in lithium and met coal, leading the price hikes in upstream commodities [1] - Improved margins in steel have delayed production cuts, while higher lithium prices are expected to enhance global supply flexibility [1] Supply Policies - New safety standards and controls on coal overproduction are being implemented, along with proposed technical specifications for monitoring cement production and clean-ups in lithium mining licenses [1] - Supply policies are still in early stages but indicate a positive direction for the industry [1] Producer Feedback - A proprietary survey indicated that 26% of respondents in downstream sectors reported a MoM increase in orders, while 31% in basic materials reported the same. Conversely, 17% and 16% indicated a lower MoM trend [2] Margins and Pricing Stability - Recent weeks have shown improved margins/pricing for steel, coal, and lithium, while cement, aluminum, and copper prices have remained mostly stable [1] Additional Insights - The report suggests that the current trends in the basic materials sector are influenced by both domestic demand fluctuations and regulatory changes aimed at stabilizing supply and prices [1][2] - The stability in downstream order books, despite the overall weak demand, may indicate a cautious optimism among producers regarding future market conditions [2] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the August 2025 China Basic Materials Monitor, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the industry and its future outlook.