全球矿业：从 HOLT 估值视角看矿业-Global Mining_ Mining through a HOLT valuation lens

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Metals & Mining industry, utilizing the HOLT valuation framework to analyze various sub-sectors and companies within this space [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments Valuation Methodology - HOLT's valuation framework is based on a discounted cash flow model, emphasizing Cash Flows Return on Investment (CFROI) as a key metric for comparing performance across companies and time [1][13]. - The report suggests that there is no single valuation methodology for metals & mining; a combination of short-term trading multiples (EV/EBITDA), cash returns, and Net Present Value (NPV) is preferred [1]. Sub-Sector Valuation Insights - Gold: - Gold stocks are seen as undemanding with market-embedded expectations around 6%, compared to near-term CFROI forecasts of ~8% [3][29]. - Top picks include ABX, KGC in North America, and EDV in Europe [3][31]. - Aluminium: - Aluminium stocks are viewed positively, trading at a 15-30% discount to historical EV/EBITDA averages [4][36]. - Preferred stock for exposure is NHY [4][37]. - Copper: - Copper stocks are considered expensive with high market expectations, trading close to historical averages [5][50]. - Recent downgrades include FCX, SCCO, and LUN to Neutral, and KGHM to Sell due to a cautious outlook [5][51]. - Diversified Miners: - Market expectations are in line with forecasts at ~4%, but these stocks trade at a premium compared to other sub-sectors [8][43]. - Preference for GLEN over RIO, BHP, and Vale due to better capital discipline [8][44]. - Steel: - EU steel stocks are pricing in low returns due to high capital intensity and regulatory uncertainties, while US steel stocks are expected to perform better due to protective tariffs [9][57]. - Preferred US steel stocks include NUE and STLD [9][57]. Additional Important Insights - The report highlights the structural challenges faced by the steel industry in Europe, including high costs related to CO2 emissions and energy [58][59]. - The EU Steel Action Plan may provide support for returns on decarbonization projects, potentially leading to a re-rating of the sector [60]. - The HOLT methodology does not assign ratings or target prices but serves as an analytical tool for evaluating company performance [66][67]. Conclusion - The Metals & Mining industry presents varied investment opportunities across sub-sectors, with specific stocks recommended based on their valuation relative to market expectations and forecasts. The report emphasizes a selective approach, particularly in the context of changing commodity prices and regulatory environments.