铜需求增长正常化，未来三个月看空铜价至每公吨 9200 美元-Metal Matters_ Copper demand growth normalises, bearish copper to $9,200_t over the next three months.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the copper industry, specifically the demand and pricing outlook for copper in the near term. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Copper Price Forecasts: The revised forecast predicts copper prices to decline to $9,200 per ton over the next three months, up from a previous forecast of $8,800 per ton, due to a gradual unwinding of excess inventory and dollar weakness providing some support [1][2][7]. 2. Demand Growth Normalization: Copper consumption growth has moderated significantly to approximately 3% year-over-year in June, following a spike in May, primarily due to a decline in solar installations in China [1][4][34]. 3. Impact of US Tariffs: Higher US reciprocal tariffs effective from August 7, 2025, are expected to hinder any meaningful recovery in global manufacturing activity, contributing to subdued manufacturing sentiment across major economies [3][18][22]. 4. Global Manufacturing Sentiment: Manufacturing sentiment remains weak, with PMIs indicating contracting activity in the US, Europe, and China, driven by global trade uncertainties and declining new orders [3][18][23]. 5. China's Role in Demand: Despite the slowdown, growth in copper consumption continues to be driven mainly by China, particularly in the decarbonization segment, although there is a notable decline in EV and renewable energy demand [4][34][37]. 6. Investor Positioning: There is potential for further reduction in investor positioning from still net long levels, as manufacturing activity and sentiment are expected to remain subdued in the coming months [15][26]. 7. Supply Concerns: Supply disruptions, such as those from Codelco's El Teniente mine, have supported copper prices above $9,700 per ton, although these concerns have eased with the mine's partial restart [9][12]. Additional Important Insights 1. Excess Inventory: An estimated excess of 510,000 tons of copper inventory in the US is expected to unwind gradually over months, presenting a bearish physical headwind for the market [10][12]. 2. Future Outlook: The outlook for 2026 appears more constructive, with expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve and potential growth in manufacturing activity, which could support copper prices [3][15]. 3. China's Renewable Installations: The collapse in solar installations in China, which fell by 40% year-over-year in June, has significantly impacted copper consumption growth [34][36]. 4. Global Trade Uncertainty: Ongoing global trade uncertainty is likely to keep manufacturing sentiment soft, affecting copper demand in the near term [18][22]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the copper industry, highlighting the current challenges and future outlook for copper prices and demand.