美国：生产者价格指数数据显示 7 月核心个人消费支出通胀可能小幅加速-US_ PPI data suggest core PCE inflation likely accelerated modestly in July

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the North American economic outlook, focusing on core PCE inflation and PPI data. Core Points and Arguments 1. Revised Core PCE Inflation Estimate: The tracking estimate for July core PCE inflation has been revised up by 6 basis points to 0.307% from a previous estimate of 0.243% [2][9] 2. June Core PCE Inflation Revision: Backward revisions to PPI data suggest that June core PCE inflation will likely be revised up by 2 basis points [2] 3. Three-Month Annualized Core Inflation: If the forecast materializes, the three-month annualized pace of core inflation is expected to increase to 3.22% in July from 2.70% in June [2][8] 4. PPI Components Performance: PPI's portfolio management and investment prices rose sharply by 5.4% month-over-month, significantly higher than the forecasted 2.7% increase [6][9] 5. Airline Fares Impact: The increase in portfolio management prices was only partially offset by a decline in airline fares, which fell by 2.3% month-over-month [12][9] 6. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectation: The expectation remains for the Federal Reserve to deliver a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming September meeting, despite the upside surprise in portfolio management prices [9][20] 7. Core PCE Tracking: Core PCE is tracking close to the Fed's year-end forecast of 3.1%, allowing officials to focus on downside risks to growth and employment data [9][20] 8. Inflation Above Target: Inflation is currently running well above the Fed's 2% target, making a 50 basis point cut unlikely [21] Additional Important Insights 1. Broadening Price Pressures: There are signs of broadening price pressures beyond the components that directly feed into core PCE inflation [12] 2. Final Demand Services Growth: Final demand services grew by 1.1% month-over-month, marking the largest advance since March 2022, primarily driven by margins for final demand trade services [13] 3. PPI's Finished Consumer Goods Prices: The price index for finished consumer goods continued to rise in July, consistent with factory survey reports [13][18] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the economic indicators and expectations surrounding inflation and Federal Reserve policy.