中国经济评论_ 新增贷款小幅收缩，信贷增速有所改善

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Chinese economy, specifically focusing on the credit market and social financing trends in July 2023. Key Points and Arguments Credit Market Performance - In July 2023, new RMB loans contracted by 50 billion, marking the first decline since July 2005, and fell short of market expectations of 285 billion [1] - Total new loans were 3.1 trillion less than the previous year, with household loans decreasing by 489 billion and corporate loans increasing by 600 billion [1] - The contraction in household medium to long-term loans was 110 billion, significantly lower than the previous year's figures [1] - The overall credit demand is weak, attributed to a sluggish real estate market and low corporate credit demand [2] Social Financing Trends - New social financing in July was 1.157 trillion, down 386 billion year-on-year, and below the market expectation of 1.5 trillion [3] - The key factor for the underperformance was the weak RMB loans, which contracted by 426 billion [3] - Government bonds issuance remained strong at 1.2 trillion, up 556 billion year-on-year, contributing positively to social financing growth [3] Future Outlook - Credit growth is expected to slow in the second half of the year due to accelerated government bond issuance, which has already reached 57% of the annual target for national bonds and 67% for local government bonds [4] - The government plans to provide interest subsidies for consumer loans, which may have a mild impact on credit and consumption demand due to underlying issues with income and consumer confidence [4] - The forecast for social financing growth is expected to decline from 9% in July to approximately 8.6% by the end of 2025 [4] Additional Insights - A significant drop in household deposits by 1.1 trillion year-on-year indicates a potential shift of funds from bank deposits to financial markets [1] - The ongoing debt replacement for local government financing platforms may also be suppressing corporate loan demand [2] - The overall credit impulse remains stable at 3.2% of GDP, indicating a steady but cautious economic environment [3] Important but Overlooked Content - The contraction in loans is not only a seasonal trend but also reflects deeper economic issues, including the impact of falling real estate prices on consumer wealth and confidence [4] - The government’s fiscal policy adjustments, including potential increases in the fiscal deficit, may provide some support for credit growth in the latter part of the year [4]