中国材料 -2025 年实地需求监测-动力煤生产与库存-China Materials_ 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #120 – Thermal Coal Production and Inventory

Summary of Thermal Coal Production and Inventory in China Industry Overview - The report focuses on the thermal coal industry in China, specifically analyzing high-frequency on-ground demand trends and production data from 100 sample thermal coal mines during the week of August 7 to August 13, 2025 [1] Key Points Production Data - Total thermal coal output from the 100 sample mines was 12,153 kt, reflecting a 0.1% increase week-over-week (WoW), a 3.6% increase year-over-year (YoY), and a 3.7% increase YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - Breakdown of output by region: - Shanxi: 2,967 kt (+0.6% WoW, +12.0% YoY, +11.9% YoY on lunar calendar) - Shaanxi: 3,700 kt (+2.2% WoW, +2.7% YoY, +2.7% YoY on lunar calendar) - Inner Mongolia: 5,486 kt (-1.4% WoW, +0.1% YoY, +0.4% YoY on lunar calendar) - Year-to-date (YTD) output for the sample mines reached 400 million tonnes (mnt), representing a 3.7% increase YoY [2] Utilization Ratio - The overall utilization ratio of the sample mines was 90.0%, which is a 0.1 percentage point (ppt) increase WoW and a 3.1 ppt increase YoY [3] - Regional utilization ratios: - Shanxi: 86.2% (+0.5 ppt WoW, +9.2 ppt YoY) - Shaanxi: 94.4% (+2.0 ppt WoW, +2.5 ppt YoY) - Inner Mongolia: 89.3% (-1.3 ppt WoW, +0.1 ppt YoY) [3] Inventory Levels - Total coal inventory in the sample mines was 3,179 kt as of August 13, 2025, showing a 0.8% decrease WoW but a 1.1% increase YoY [4] - Regional inventory levels: - Shanxi: 880 kt (-1.3% WoW, +4.9% YoY) - Shaanxi: 705 kt (+0.9% WoW, -10.5% YoY) - Inner Mongolia: 1,594 kt (-1.3% WoW, +5.1% YoY) [4] Market Sentiment - The overall market expectation regarding demand recovery in the thermal coal sector remains cautious, despite the positive production and utilization trends observed [1] Comparative Industry Ranking - The current pecking order of industries based on demand is as follows: aluminum > steel > copper > thermal coal > battery > gold > lithium > cement [1] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring these trends as they can indicate potential investment opportunities or risks within the thermal coal sector in China [1][2][3][4]