中国互联网数据中心行业：2025 年第二季度预览- 平静的一季-Chinese Internet Data Centre Sector_ Q225 preview_ a quiet quarter_

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - Industry: Chinese Internet Data Centre (IDC) Sector - Quarter: Q225 Key Points and Arguments Market Demand and Orders - There were not many new IDC orders in Q225 due to the H20 ban in April, with NVIDIA indicating a potential resumption in July, but the Chinese government's stance remains uncertain [2] - Market demand is characterized as "2+X", where "2" refers to ByteDance and Alibaba, noted as the most aggressive investors in AI [2] Utilization and Financial Performance - GDS and VNET are expected to see steady utilization ramp-up, forecasting an 8% and 22% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA, respectively [3] - China Mobile reported a GPU utilization rate increase from 20% before the DeepSeek shock in January to 55% in Q225, indicating a shift in deployment methods [3] Future Catalysts - Key factors to monitor include: 1. Hyperscalers' capital expenditure outlook, particularly from Alibaba and ByteDance, which may focus more on inference demand [4] 2. The release of DeepSeek R2, with a noted market focus on 2C applications, despite 90% of token usage being on the 2B side [4] 3. Cloud revenue growth, with expectations for acceleration due to lower digital penetration in China compared to the US [4] Financial Projections - VNET's revenue for Q225 is projected at RMB 2,330 million, reflecting a 16.9% year-over-year increase, while GDS's revenue is expected to be RMB 2,794 million, an 8.3% increase [7] - Adjusted EBITDA for VNET is forecasted at RMB 699 million, a 21.8% increase year-over-year, while GDS's adjusted EBITDA is expected to be RMB 1,336 million, also an 8.3% increase [7] Valuation Insights - The inaugural year of IDC C-REITs is expected to provide a valuation benchmark, potentially driving sector re-rating in the long term [5] - GDS's C-REIT traded 30% higher on its first day, but GDS's share price did not react, indicating a tech-focused investor base prioritizing growth over returns [5] Risks and Challenges - Downside Risks: Weaker-than-expected AI demand, faults at data centers, higher interest rates, and unfavorable regulatory environments [8] - Upside Risks: Stronger-than-expected AI and cloud business growth, lower electricity costs, and tighter control on licensing [8] Valuation Methodology - VNET is valued based on target EV/EBITDA multiples, with key risks including refinancing challenges and customer churn [9] - GDS is valued using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, with risks including slower cloud/AI growth and reputational damage from outages [10] Additional Important Information - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring hyperscalers' cloud revenue growth, which is crucial for understanding the overall health of the IDC sector [4] - The visibility of IDC tenders by hyperscalers is expected to improve in Q325, suggesting a potential recovery in new orders [4]