中国工业月度报告（2025 年 7 月）-整体需求不错，本土化进程加快IA Monthly (Jul 2025) – Overall Demand Not Bad, and Localization Accelerated

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Industrial Automation (IA) sector in China and highlights the ongoing trends in demand and market dynamics as of July 2025 [1][2][13]. Core Insights - Demand Trends: - Local IA suppliers experienced a sales growth of +19% YoY in July, up from +18% YoY in June and +15% YoY in May [2][13]. - Inovance's IA order growth improved to over 20% YoY in July, up from 15% YoY in June [2][13]. - Key sectors showing solid growth include logistics, hoisting, battery, auto, woodworking, food & beverage, textile, machine tool, and packaging [2][13]. - Overseas Brands Performance: - Sales growth for leading overseas IA suppliers moderated to +1% YoY in July from +6% YoY in June [3][13]. - Yaskawa's servo sales growth remained strong at +25% YoY, while inverter sales in China dropped to -11% YoY [3][13]. - ABB's inverter sales fell to -6% YoY from +10% YoY, indicating competitive pricing pressures [3][13]. - Taiwanese Peers: - Hiwin's sales were weak at -6% YoY in July, while Airtac maintained a firm growth of +7% YoY [4][13]. - Management expects automation demand to pick up in Q4 as interest rates are cut in the EU and US [4][13]. Macro Indicators - Manufacturing PMI: - The Manufacturing PMI declined slightly to 49.3 in July from 49.7 in June, indicating softened confidence in the manufacturing sector [5][67]. - High-end, large, and small companies' PMIs all dropped, while mid-sized companies' PMI recovered to 49.5 [5][67]. - Business Conditions Index (BCI): - The BCI remained at 53.4 in July, down from a peak of 57.7 in April, reflecting cautious investment outlooks among SMEs [67]. - Export Growth: - Container export volumes in major ports increased to +1.9% in June from +1.3% in May, while total exports improved to +7.2% in July from +5.9% [67]. Sector-Specific Insights - Servo and Inverter Demand: - Projected servo demand growth remained at +12% YoY in July, while inverter demand fell back to -2% YoY [13][18]. - The top downstream applications for servos include lithium battery, 3C electronics, industrial robots, solar, and machine tools [24][30]. - Downstream Demand Trends: - Demand for servos from top applications slowed to +15% YoY in June from +82% YoY in May, primarily due to deteriorating solar demand [26][30]. - Inverter demand from top applications improved slightly to +3% YoY in June from +2% YoY in May, driven by recovery in machine tools and power sectors [26][30]. Conclusion - The IA sector in China is experiencing a divergence in growth between local and overseas suppliers, with local players showing stronger performance amid ongoing macroeconomic challenges. The outlook for the second half of 2025 remains cautiously optimistic, supported by favorable government policies and potential recovery in key sectors.