中国房地产-7 月数据全面恶化；我们预计疲软趋势将持续-China Property-Monthly Tracker July Data Worsened on All Fronts; We

Summary of the Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China Property market, specifically analyzing trends and data from July 2025, indicating a continued decline in property sales and prices across various city tiers [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Decline in Property Sales: - Property sales in July 2025 worsened, with primary sales volume in 65 cities down 21% year-on-year compared to 24% in June. Secondary sales in 33 cities decreased by 14% year-on-year, worsening from 8% in June [3]. - Year-to-date growth for primary sales is now at -10% year-on-year, while secondary sales show a growth of +9% year-on-year for the first seven months of 2025 [3]. 2. Falling Housing Prices: - Primary home prices in 70 cities dropped 3.4% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. Secondary home prices fell 5.9% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month [4]. - In top-10 cities, secondary prices decreased by 5.1% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month, while in top-100 cities, the decline was 7.3% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month [4]. 3. Increased Inventory Levels: - Primary inventory months rose to 24.1x in July, up from 23.8x in June, indicating a significant increase in unsold properties across all city tiers [6]. - Tier 1 cities saw inventory levels increase to 14.5x, tier 2 cities to 24.1x, and tier 3 cities to 29.8x [6]. 4. Weakening Land Sales: - Land sales in 300 cities decreased by 14.3% year-on-year in gross floor area (GFA), although the value increased by 8.3% year-on-year due to changes in city mix [7]. - The land auction failure rate rose to 8.5%, up from 4.0% in June, indicating a challenging environment for land sales [7]. 5. Investment Recommendations: - The analysis suggests a cautious approach, recommending investors to focus on quality state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with high visibility, such as CR Land (1109.HK) and CR Mixc (1209.HK), as well as high-dividend-yield stocks like C&D (1908.HK) [2]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the property market remains weak, with expectations that this trend will continue in the coming months due to high inventory and declining prices [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting investments carefully in a challenging market environment, highlighting the potential for alpha generation through quality SOEs [1][2]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and outlook of the China property market, providing a comprehensive overview for potential investors and stakeholders.