全球石化供给侧共振，行业有望步入上行周期

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The global petrochemical industry is entering an upward cycle due to significant supply-side adjustments, particularly in Europe, where major producers are exiting the market [1][2][3] - European petrochemical capacity is set to decrease by 11 million tons in 2024 and an additional 5.7 million tons of ethylene capacity in the first half of 2025, representing over 25% of total capacity [1][2] - The EU's trade deficit in petrochemical products has expanded, with a deficit of €20 billion with China and €33 billion with the US, primarily due to collapsing end-demand [1][2] Regional Insights Europe - The capacity utilization rate in Europe has dropped from 82% in 2020 to 74% in 2023 due to various factors, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2] - Despite economic stimulus policies, major petrochemical companies are firmly exiting the market, leading to a significant reduction in production capacity [2][3] United States - The US experienced a significant increase in ethylene capacity due to the shale revolution, adding 16 million tons from 2016 to 2024 [2][4] - However, profitability has declined since the peak in 2021, with losses expected in 2024 and Q1 2025 due to high investment costs and low ethylene prices [4] - New production in the US is nearing completion, with only Chevron Phillips planning to launch a 2.08 million ton facility in 2026 [4] Japan and South Korea - The petrochemical industry in Japan and South Korea is currently in a plateau phase, with no significant changes in capacity but a drastic drop in operating rates (70%-80% in South Korea and around 60% in Japan) [5] - Both countries are facing challenges and may consider asset sales or consolidation, although government support aims to slow down the exit from the market [5] Capacity Trends - Global ethylene capacity growth is expected to decline from an average of 4.73 million tons per year from 2016 to 2023 to approximately 2 million tons per year from 2025 to 2028 [6][7] - Refining capacity growth has also decreased, with projections dropping from 1 million barrels per year to around 400,000 barrels in the coming years [6][7] Market Impacts - The exit of European capacity is already affecting global markets, with price fluctuations in TDI and increases in prices for companies like Qixiang Tengda and Yuxin Dingtong [3][8] - The slowdown in US production and the potential for Japan and South Korea to follow Europe's lead in capacity reduction are contributing to an overall decline in the growth rate of the global petrochemical industry [7][8] Domestic Responses - Domestic private refining companies in China are adapting to declining demand for refined oil by reducing the proportion of refined oil and increasing the production of high-value-added products like olefins and aromatics [9] - Strict control of consumption tax in China is helping to reduce tax evasion, benefiting compliant companies like Sinopec, Rongsheng, and Hengli [9] Future Outlook - The price of naphtha, a key raw material for olefins and aromatics, has been strengthening since the second half of 2024, with expectations for continued support from high downstream chemical demand [10][11] - The long-term outlook for by-product markets, including naphtha, petroleum coke, and sulfur, is positive, with anticipated price strength benefiting related companies [12]