多行业北美-哪些垂直行业在特朗普 2.0 关税政策中领先-Multi-Industry North America-CoTD Price Check, Which Verticals are Leading on Trump 2.0 Tariffs

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the Multi-Industry sector in North America with specific attention to the impact of Trump 2.0 tariffs on pricing dynamics [1][7][75]. Key Insights - Price Dynamics: The year-to-date (YTD) change in Producer Price Index (PPI) by category indicates that certain verticals are better positioned to sustain price increases into Q3 compared to others [2][4]. - Industrial Sector Performance: Despite positive Q2 updates, US Industrials experienced a de-rating during earnings season, suggesting challenges in maintaining premium valuations observed earlier in July [4][9]. - Pricing Power: The report emphasizes that US Industrial pricing power is an underappreciated factor contributing to operational durability, which is expected to positively influence revisions and valuations in upcoming quarters [18]. - Profitability from Tariffs: Companies that capitalized on Trump 1.0 tariffs are now benefiting from excess backlog and improved value addition, which is expected to support pricing power in the second half of the year [9][18]. Notable Verticals - The strongest price increases are seen in sectors such as Switchgear, Welding, Valves, Electrical Equipment, Pumps + Compressors, HVACR, Non-Residential Lighting, and Industrial Controls. Companies like Eaton (ETN), Acuity (AYI), Hubbell (HUBB), Rockwell (ROK), and others are highlighted as favorable due to their pricing strategies [4][18]. - Fastener PPI Data: There is a noted disconnect between the muted Fastener PPI data and the strength observed in Fastenal (FAST), indicating potential market anomalies [4]. Historical Context - The analysis includes a review of pricing changes during the 2021-22 hyperinflation period, revealing that no verticals have given back price increases in 2023-24 despite commodity deflation and a prolonged manufacturing recession [16][18]. Future Outlook - The expectation is that companies capable of ramping up volumes in the second half of the year will experience multiple expansions, indicating a more durable momentum into 2026 [9]. - The report suggests that the enhanced value addition and reshoring activities in the US will further support pricing power and profitability for the best-positioned companies [18]. Additional Considerations - The report includes a caution regarding the need for positive revisions to drive further upside in stock valuations, emphasizing that companies pushing the most price will likely fare better [4][9]. - The document also contains various disclosures regarding potential conflicts of interest and the investment banking relationships of Morgan Stanley with the companies mentioned [6][28][31]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Multi-Industry sector in North America.