NOR 闪存 - 台湾供应商赶上涨价潮-NOR Flash – Taiwan's suppliers catch up on pricing hike; OW Winbond

Summary of Conference Call on Greater China Technology Semiconductors Industry Overview - The focus is on the NOR Flash segment within the Greater China Technology Semiconductors industry, particularly regarding Taiwan's suppliers and Winbond Electronics Corp [1][2]. Key Points 1. Pricing Trends: - Taiwanese suppliers are catching up on the NOR Flash pricing hike, with GigaDevice raising prices by 5-10% in Q3 2025, which is expected to set a benchmark for Winbond in Q4 2025 [2][3]. - Winbond is anticipated to gain market share due to shifts in customer sourcing strategies [2]. 2. DDR4 Market Outlook: - There is an undersupply of DDR4, which is likely to lead to profitability for Winbond sooner than expected. The concern regarding inventory digestion is considered overdone [2]. - Major memory players, including Samsung, are targeting another double-digit contract pricing hike in Q4 2025, indicating strong demand [2]. 3. Valuation Methodology: - Winbond is valued at 1.2x its projected 2026 P/B, aligning with the approach for other Greater China memory IDM peers, reflecting the industry's high volatility [7]. Risks Identified - Upside Risks: - Increased NOR Flash pricing due to stronger-than-expected demand. - Higher-than-expected DRAM pricing amid ongoing supply shortages. - Faster-than-anticipated development of SLC NAND technology [9]. - Downside Risks: - Potential downcycle in NOR Flash pricing due to weaker demand. - Lower-than-expected DRAM pricing due to oversupply. - Slower-than-expected development of SLC NAND technology [9]. Additional Insights - The overall industry view is rated as Attractive, indicating positive expectations for performance over the next 12-18 months [3]. - Winbond's stock is currently rated as Overweight, suggesting that its total return is expected to exceed the average total return of its industry peers [62]. Conclusion - The NOR Flash segment is experiencing significant pricing adjustments, with Winbond positioned to benefit from market dynamics and potential profitability in the DDR4 market. The valuation reflects a cautious optimism amid identified risks, making it a noteworthy player in the semiconductor industry.