中国-全球人工智能供应链最新动态；亚洲半导体的关键机遇

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Greater China Semiconductors industry, particularly in the context of AI supply chain updates and investment opportunities in the semiconductor sector in Asia [1][3]. Core Insights - The industry view has been upgraded to "Attractive" for the second half of 2025, with a preference for AI-related semiconductors over non-AI counterparts [1][3]. - Concerns regarding semiconductor tariffs and foreign exchange impacts are diminishing, leading to expectations of further sector re-rating [1][3]. - Key investment themes for 2026 are being previewed, indicating a proactive approach to future market conditions [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - Top picks in the AI semiconductor space include TSMC, Winbond, Alchip, Aspeed, MediaTek, KYEC, ASE, FOCI, Himax, and ASMPT [6]. - Non-AI recommendations include Novatek, OmniVision, Realtek, NAURA Tech, AMEC, ACMR, Silergy, SG Micro, SICC, and Yangjie [6]. - Companies under "Equal Weight" or "Underweight" include UMC, ASMedia, Nanya Tech, Vanguard, WIN Semi, and Macronix [6]. Market Dynamics - AI demand is expected to accelerate due to generative AI, which is spreading across various verticals beyond the semiconductor industry [6]. - The recovery in the semiconductor sector in the second half of 2025 may be impacted by tariff costs, with historical data indicating that a decline in semiconductor inventory days is a positive signal for stock price appreciation [6]. - The domestic GPU supply chain's sufficiency is questioned, particularly in light of DeepSeek's cheaper inferencing capabilities and Nvidia's B30 shipments potentially diluting the market [6]. Long-term Trends - The long-term demand drivers include technology diffusion and deflation, with expectations that "price elasticity" will stimulate demand for tech products [6]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a prolonged downcycle in mature node foundry and niche memory due to increased supply from China [6]. Financial Metrics and Valuation - TSMC's estimated revenue from AI semiconductors is projected to account for approximately 34% of its total revenue by 2027 [20]. - The report includes a detailed valuation comparison across various semiconductor segments, highlighting P/E ratios, EPS growth, and market capitalization for key companies [7][8]. Foreign Exchange Impact - The appreciation of the TWD against the USD could negatively impact gross margins and operating profit margins for companies like TSMC, UMC, and others, with a 1% appreciation translating to a 40bps GM downside [30]. - Despite these concerns, the overall structural profitability of TSMC is not expected to be significantly affected [30]. Conclusion - The Greater China semiconductor industry is positioned for growth, particularly in AI segments, with a favorable outlook for the second half of 2025 and beyond. Investors are encouraged to consider the evolving landscape and potential opportunities within this sector [1][3][6].