弘则策略｜2025年下半年市场策略 - 聚集新一轮核心资产

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the Chinese economy and its structural adjustments, particularly in relation to export dynamics and the performance of listed companies in the context of global markets [1][2][3][5][18]. Core Insights and Arguments - Export Structure Optimization: The increase in the share of self-owned brands in exports has led to significant profit growth for companies with over 50% overseas business, validating the shift in economic structure [1][3]. - Global Economic Recovery: The global economy is in a recovery phase, with European PMI improving and Chinese brands expanding their market share, contributing to growth [1][5]. - Misinterpretation of Economic Conditions: The perception of a "spending method recession illusion" arises from an overemphasis on demand-side factors, neglecting positive supply-side developments such as product quality improvements and advancements in AI and new energy vehicles [1][6]. - Manufacturing Competitiveness: The key to the revaluation of Chinese assets lies in the enhancement of manufacturing competitiveness and integration into the global supply chain, rather than decoupling [9][10]. - Market Sentiment and Valuation: A shift in market sentiment is observed, with high turnover rates indicating extreme market enthusiasm, yet caution is advised due to potential short-term risks [13][14][20]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Investment Opportunities: The combination of rising household deposits and declining financial product yields is driving funds into the stock market, enhancing the market's profit-making effect [20]. - Valuation Disparities: There is a notable divergence in industry valuations, with high-growth sectors outperforming low-growth ones, indicating a trend towards new core assets formed by globalization and brand expansion [19][21]. - Long-term vs Short-term Outlook: While the long-term outlook for the Chinese economy and equity markets remains optimistic, the current trading environment is characterized by high valuations, suggesting that it may not be an ideal time for new investments [18][21]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call records, highlighting the dynamics of the Chinese economy, the performance of listed companies, and the implications for investors.