光模块：AI时代的耗材，格局壁垒稳固

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Optical Modules Industry Overview - The optical module industry is experiencing a significant demand surge driven by the upgrade of AI cluster architectures, transitioning from traditional cloud computing structures to more complex architectures, leading to an estimated threefold increase in optical module usage [1][4] - The global optical module market is projected to reach $25 billion by 2026, with a growth rate nearing 70%, primarily benefiting from the hardware demand growth associated with AI and cloud computing [1][5] Market Dynamics - The market is highly concentrated, with three major players—Aixun, NewEase, and Finisar—holding nearly 80% of the market share, where Aixun accounts for approximately 40% [1][6] - The competitive landscape is relatively stable due to high technical barriers and the significant advantages of leading companies in R&D and production capabilities, with no substantial changes expected in the short term [1][7] Competitive Landscape - U.S. optical module companies, despite higher pricing, have lower gross and net margins compared to domestic manufacturers, making them vulnerable to price wars [1][9] - The supply chain for core materials, such as laser chips, is primarily controlled by U.S. and Japanese companies, which tend to maintain a supply-demand imbalance, benefiting larger companies while constraining smaller competitors [1][9] - The product iteration cycle has shortened to 2-3 years, making it challenging for new entrants to gain market opportunities due to the limited certification window [2][10] Key Components and Technology - Optical modules play a crucial role in modern communication networks, particularly in data centers and telecom networks, relying on key upstream components like chips and passive devices [3] - The shift from traditional cloud computing to AI clusters has significantly increased the demand for optical modules, with the architecture changes leading to a substantial rise in usage [4] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue expanding beyond 2026, with ongoing investments in emerging technologies such as silicon photonics and Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) [1][12] - Although there is a possibility of a correction in high gross margins and ROE, the likelihood remains low under the current framework [11] Additional Insights - The stability of the competitive landscape is attributed to several factors, including the special position of U.S. companies, upstream supply chain control, product yield differences, overseas capacity layout, and rapid product iteration cycles [8][10]