固收：强预期高估值，转债如何赚取超额？

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the convertible bond market and its relationship with the stock market, highlighting the performance of sectors such as electronics and AI, which are expected to drive further valuation increases in convertible bonds [1][4][23]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Market Dynamics: The stock market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, rising from 1.5 trillion to over 2 trillion daily, indicating new incremental capital entering the market [4][5]. 2. Convertible Bond Valuation: Current valuations of convertible bonds are high but are expected to potentially break historical highs due to strong market sentiment and increased buying from public funds [3][4]. 3. Investment Shifts: As some bank convertible bonds near maturity, funds are likely to flow into sectors like photovoltaic and chemical industries, which are seen as new destinations for bank incremental capital [5][23]. 4. Investor Composition: The proportion of major institutional investors has not significantly increased, while the share of individual and general institutions has decreased, indicating a shift towards private equity and brokerage participation [6]. 5. Performance of Strategies: Stock-oriented strategies have performed the best, with gene allocation strategies in sectors like electronics and pharmaceuticals showing strong results, while high yield and low allocation strategies have underperformed [7][8]. 6. Convertible Bond Premiums: Stock-oriented convertible bonds have a relatively balanced premium compared to other types, suggesting potential for further increases in valuation [9][23]. 7. Absolute Return Strategies: Investors are focusing on low-crowding indicators to identify under-the-radar convertible bonds, as well as high alpha strategies that emphasize low premium rates [10][23]. Additional Important Insights 1. Sector Recommendations: Recommended convertible bonds include those from the chemical sector such as Hangyang and Feng Er, as well as small-cap stocks like Keshun and Qifan Tianeng, which are expected to show excess return potential [2][11]. 2. Banking and Steel Recommendations: In the 90-120 yuan valuation range, banks like Industrial Bank and steel companies like Youfa are highlighted for their potential upside despite recent price adjustments [12][13]. 3. Market Sentiment: The overall sentiment in the stock market remains strong, with expectations that convertible bond valuations will continue to rise as the stock market does not appear to have reached an extreme [9][23]. 4. Future Trends: The call emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of convertible bonds in relation to stock market movements, particularly in sectors with strong growth potential like AI and high-end manufacturing [22][23]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, focusing on the convertible bond market and its interconnections with broader market trends and sector performances.