Toll Brothers(TOL) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company delivered 2,959 homes at an average price of $974,000, generating record third-quarter home sale revenues of $2,900,000,000, which represents a 5% increase in units and a 6% increase in dollars compared to the previous year [5][15] - Adjusted gross margin was 27.5%, exceeding guidance by 25 basis points, while SG&A expense was 8.8% of home sales revenues, 40 basis points better than guidance [5][16] - Third-quarter earnings were $370,000,000 or $3.73 per diluted share, with a cancellation rate of 3.2%, which remains the lowest in the industry [10][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company signed 2,388 net contracts for $2,400,000,000, with units down approximately 4% year over year, but dollars flat due to an increase in average sales price to just over $1,000,000 [5][15] - The average sales price (ASP) was up 4.5% versus 2024 and up 3% versus the last quarter, indicating resilience in the luxury business [5][15] - The backlog stood at 5,492 homes valued at $6,376,000,000, with an average sales price in the backlog of $1,160,000 [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company ended the third quarter with 420 active selling communities and expects to end the fiscal year with 440 to 450 communities, representing 8% to 10% year-over-year growth [11][12] - The company has 3,200 spec homes at various stages of completion and another 1,800 building permits ready to go, allowing for quick ramp-up of spec production as market conditions improve [7][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to prioritize price and margin over pace, actively managing spec starts and inventory levels on a community-by-community basis to match local market conditions [6][11] - The strategy of selling spec homes at various stages of construction allows buyers to personalize their homes while providing a faster construction schedule [8][9] - The company remains disciplined in its land acquisition strategy, focusing on high-quality land at attractive returns while keeping land off balance sheet as long as practical [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining a full-year adjusted gross margin of 27.25% and expects to deliver approximately 11,200 homes for the full year [6][23] - The company anticipates a modest decline in build costs and has not seen significant impacts from tariffs, with expectations for build costs to come down in the foreseeable future [10][11] - Management highlighted the importance of community openings and spec strategy to drive growth in fiscal year 2026, with optimism about market conditions improving [36][41] Other Important Information - The company returned approximately $226,000,000 to stockholders through dividends and share repurchases in the quarter [5] - The company issued $500,000,000 of ten-year senior notes at a 5.6% coupon and called $350,000,000 of senior notes scheduled to mature in November [20][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Cash flow from operations guidance - The year-to-date cash flow from operations is approximately $400 million, with expectations to reach over $1,000,000,000 by year-end [29][30] Question: Construction costs expectations - Management expects construction costs to be flat to modestly down in the short term, with some progress in negotiating better pricing for materials [31][32] Question: Sales pace and community growth - Management confirmed no change in the sales pace target of two homes per community per month and expressed excitement about community count growth in fiscal year 2026 [35][36] Question: Incentives and sales trends - Incentives increased to 8% due to more discounting on finished specs, but management noted that incentives have stabilized recently [50][51] Question: Development costs and community count guidance - Management has not seen much relief on land development costs but expects community count growth to be spread throughout the quarter without significant regional concentration [69][72]