SIASUN(SZ:300024)2025-08-21 04:44Summary of MIR Conference Call on Humanoids and Reducers Industry Overview - The conference call held by MIR focused on the outlook for the industrials sector, specifically humanoid robots and reducers as a core component of humanoids [2][4] Key Insights - Mass Production Timeline: MIR anticipates 2025 as the first year of mass production for humanoid robots, estimating unit production at 10.7k and sales at 6.7k in China, with projections to scale up to 173k units by 2030 [7][4] - Adoption Rates: Early commercial adoption is expected, with industrial adoption ramping up in 2027 and household adoption in 2030. The current intelligence level of humanoids is at L3, with L4 humanoids expected to emerge in 3-5 years [7][4] - Reducer Demand: Humanoids are expected to drive significant demand for reducers. Although market leaders hold substantial market share, the competitive landscape remains fluid [7][4] Beneficiary Companies - Key Players: Companies such as Shuanghuan (002472.SZ) and Leaderdrive (688017.SS) are identified as key beneficiaries of the growing demand for reducers in humanoid robots. Other notable suppliers include Laifual and Zhongda Leader [3][2] - Innovation in Reducers: Companies are pushing for innovation in reducer technology, with Fine Motion and Zhongda Leader developing new cycloidal reducers, and Aici Technology creating a self-anti-backlash harmonic reducer [3][2] Market Dynamics - China's Upstream-Driven Approach: The initial benefits will accrue to suppliers in China, allowing them to reduce costs and expand adoption, creating a positive feedback loop. In contrast, the US is focusing on technological advancement over volume [2][4] - Investment Opportunities: Beyond reducers, there are opportunities in sensors, motors, and planetary roller screws as the humanoid market evolves [7][4] Valuation and Risks - Valuation Methodology: For Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co. Ltd., a 25x P/E ratio is applied for 2025 estimates, reflecting higher growth visibility and potential downstream demand expansion [8][4] - Risks to Upside: Potential for a stronger rebound in robot demand, faster humanoid evolution, and successful penetration into humanoid integrators' supply chains [12][11] - Risks to Downside: Slower-than-expected market share gains, weaker overseas demand, and intensifying competition in the gear and actuator market in China [11][12] Conclusion - The humanoid robotics market is poised for significant growth, with key players positioned to benefit from increasing demand for reducers and related technologies. The landscape is dynamic, with both opportunities and risks that investors should consider.