美国经济 - 关税成本几何，由谁承担-US Economics-What are the tariff costs and who is bearing them

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy, particularly focusing on inflation, corporate strategies, and sector-specific effects. [1][2][3] Core Insights and Arguments 1. Tariff Impact on Inflation and Margins: Tariffs are functioning as both consumption and production taxes, leading to increased inflation risks and squeezed profit margins for companies. [1][3][6] 2. Current Tariff Rates: As of June 2025, the average effective tariff rate on U.S. imports is approximately 8.9%, which is significantly lower than the expected baseline of around 16%. [7][16] 3. Sector-Specific Tariff Rates: Consumer goods, particularly apparel (24%), autos (15.8%), and furniture (16.1%), are facing higher tariff rates compared to other sectors. [28][6] 4. Corporate Earnings and Tariff Pass-Through: 2Q25 corporate earnings indicate uneven pass-through of tariff costs, with companies employing various strategies to mitigate impacts, including price adjustments and supplier negotiations. [6][9] 5. Mitigation Strategies: Companies are using a mix of strategies such as flexing pricing power, negotiating with suppliers, and shifting supply chains to manage tariff costs. [9][51] 6. Prolonged Inflationary Effects: The inflationary impact of tariffs may be prolonged as firms adopt gradual price increases rather than immediate hikes, leading to a delayed effect on consumer prices. [8][11] 7. Federal Reserve Surveys: Surveys indicate widespread cost pressures and cautious business sentiments, with many firms delaying investments and hiring due to tariff uncertainties. [8][45] Additional Important Insights 1. Tariff Collections: Between January and June 2025, duties collected on imported goods totaled $94 billion, surpassing the total duties collected in 2024, which was $76 billion. [15] 2. Consumer Behavior: Consumers are becoming more price-sensitive, leading to shifts in purchasing patterns, such as buying ahead of anticipated price increases due to tariffs. [61][65] 3. Sectoral Variability: The impact of tariffs varies significantly across sectors, with manufacturing and agriculture particularly affected by increased input costs and trade uncertainties. [63][64] 4. Future Expectations: There is an expectation that tariff rates will increase in the coming months, leading to further economic pressures and potential cooling in labor demand. [14][20][46] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the multifaceted impact of tariffs on the economy and corporate strategies.