美国政策与主题性阿尔法 - 解读股市对政策风险的韧性-US Public Policy x Thematic Alpha-Explaining Equities' Resilience to Policy Risks

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the US equity market, particularly the S&P 500 and its resilience to recent policy changes including tariffs, taxes, immigration, and deregulation [1][2][3] Core Insights - There is a divergence between macroeconomic indicators, which show a weakening environment, and the equity market, which has posted positive year-to-date performance since April [2][6] - The negative impacts of policy changes are concentrated in sectors with limited market cap weight, while positive impacts are more dispersed among larger sectors [3][12] - The Consumer Discretionary sector has underperformed the broader market by approximately 10% year-to-date, primarily due to tariff-related risks [15][18] - Industrials are expected to outperform due to tailwinds from near-shoring and domestic AI investments, supported by stronger pricing power [8][12] - The Semiconductors sector has shown strong relative performance despite negative policy impacts, benefiting from the AI theme [8][12] Sector-Specific Impacts - Immigration: Expected to lower real GDP growth by about 0.5 percentage points due to tighter labor supply, affecting sectors like construction and hospitality, which have a smaller share of the S&P 500 market cap [13][24] - Tariffs: Contributed 60-70 basis points of drag to GDP growth, with significant impacts on the Consumer Discretionary sector, while the overall market cap weight of affected sectors is limited [14][15] - Tax Policy: The OBBBA is expected to add 40 basis points to GDP growth next year, with benefits for sectors like Technology and Industrials due to provisions like upfront R&D expensing and bonus depreciation [16][40] - De-regulation: Expected to have micro-level impacts, particularly benefiting the Financials and Energy sectors through eased capital requirements and regulatory changes [45][46] Additional Considerations - The equity market's resilience is attributed to a focus on the rate of change in policy impacts rather than absolute levels, with a bullish narrative supported by factors like a potential Fed cutting cycle and AI adoption [12][14] - The overall economic outlook is expected to remain sluggish, with GDP growth decelerating but avoiding recession, maintaining a preference for US assets [12][18] - The Consumer Discretionary sector is particularly vulnerable to tariff risks, while Industrials and Financials are positioned for potential upside due to favorable policy changes [15][22] Conclusion - The analysis indicates that while macroeconomic indicators suggest a weakening environment, the equity market, particularly the S&P 500, remains resilient due to sector-specific dynamics and policy impacts. The focus on sector-level analysis reveals opportunities and risks that may not be immediately apparent from broader economic data [12][18]