美国_FOMC会议纪要指出，“大多数” 与会者认为通胀上行风险大于就业下行风险-USA_ FOMC Minutes Note “Majority” of Participants Saw Upside Risks to Inflation Greater Than Downside Risks to Employment Before

Summary of FOMC Meeting Minutes Industry Overview - The document pertains to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its assessment of the U.S. economy, particularly focusing on inflation and employment dynamics. Key Points and Arguments 1. Inflation vs. Employment Risks - A majority of FOMC participants viewed the upside risk to inflation as greater than the downside risk to employment. Some participants considered the risks to be roughly balanced, while a couple of participants highlighted the downside risk to employment as more significant [2][7]. 2. Payroll Growth Data - The FOMC meeting occurred before the July employment report, which indicated weaker-than-expected payroll growth. The 3-month average of payroll growth was 150,000 at the time of the meeting, compared to a revised figure of 35,000 now [2]. 3. Expectations on Inflation - Participants generally expected inflation to rise in the near term but expressed uncertainty regarding the timing, magnitude, and persistence of tariff effects on prices. There was acknowledgment of potential lags between tariff increases and consumer price hikes due to various factors [3]. 4. Tariff Impact on Prices - Some participants noted that foreign exporters were absorbing a modest portion of the increased tariffs, while others anticipated that companies would increasingly pass these costs onto consumers over time. However, a few participants mentioned that companies were attempting to avoid raising prices due to weak final demand [3]. 5. Economic Conditions - The economy was considered to be at or near maximum employment, with a low unemployment rate. Some participants indicated that slower economic growth might lead to weaker labor market conditions, but others argued that this was not necessarily indicative of economic slack due to a decline in immigration affecting payroll growth [7]. 6. Fed's Economic Forecast - The Fed staff's economic forecast remained similar to the previous meeting, reflecting weaker-than-expected data and a slower pace of immigration. The staff projected a rise in the unemployment rate above the natural rate and a slight downgrade in inflation projections due to lower estimates of tariff passthrough to prices [7]. 7. Balance Sheet and Monetary Policy - The FOMC noted that the balance sheet runoff had proceeded smoothly, with reserves remaining abundant. Some participants expressed concerns that the rebuilding of the Treasury General Account could create pressures in money markets, but existing Fed tools could mitigate this [8]. 8. Monetary Policy Framework Review - The FOMC was close to finalizing changes to its monetary policy framework, with expectations to shift back to responding to deviations from maximum employment rather than just shortfalls, and to return to flexible inflation targeting as the main strategy [9]. Additional Important Content - The document includes various disclosures and regulatory information related to Goldman Sachs and its analysts, emphasizing the importance of considering this report as one factor in investment decisions [5][11][12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the FOMC meeting minutes, highlighting the ongoing concerns regarding inflation, employment, and the broader economic landscape.