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万国数据_2025 年第二季度业绩因更好的 MSR 表现超预期;DayOne 的 EBITDA 因稳健的承诺产能增长而超预期;买入-GDS Holdings (GDS)_ First Take_ 2Q25 results beat on better MSR; DayOne's EBITDA beat with robust committed capacity growth; Buy
2025-08-21 04:44

Summary of GDS Holdings and DayOne 2Q25 Results Company Overview - Company: GDS Holdings (GDS/9698.HK) - Industry: Data Center and Cloud Services Key Financial Results - GDS Holdings 2Q25 Results: - Net Revenue: RMB 2.9 billion, up 12% YoY, beating consensus estimates by 1% and 3% respectively [3][6] - Adjusted EBITDA: RMB 1.372 billion, up 11% YoY, exceeding estimates by 5% and 3% respectively [3][6] - Net Debt/EBITDA: Reduced to <6x post C-REIT listing, indicating improved financial health [1][9] - DayOne 2Q25 Results: - Revenue: US$ 85.5 million, up 144% YoY, slightly below estimates by 1% [10] - Adjusted EBITDA: US$ 29.7 million, up 156% YoY, exceeding estimates by 11% [10] - Adjusted EBITDA Margin: Expanded to 34.7% [10] Market Trends and Management Insights - AI Demand: Management noted a quiet period for AI demand in 2Q25 due to uncertainties in chip availability, but remains optimistic about future demand driven by next-gen Nvidia chips [1][7] - Capacity Growth: GDS is preparing for a multi-year growth phase with 900MW capacity held for future development, aimed at reducing lead times [1][9] - New Commitments: GDS China secured 14.4k sqm of new commitments, reflecting a 2% QoQ and 8% YoY increase [6][7] Operational Metrics - Area Utilized: Increased by 9% YoY, with a utilization rate of 77.5% [7] - MSR (Monthly Service Revenue): Stable YoY and improved by 4% QoQ, influenced by market pricing and data center site mix [7] Guidance and Future Outlook - Revenue and EBITDA Guidance: Management maintains FY25 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance unchanged, with updated capex guidance of RMB 2.7 billion net of proceeds [7] - Growth Strategy: DayOne is ahead of schedule in achieving its 1GW commitment target, with plans for expansion in Europe and APAC [9][11] Risks and Considerations - Price Target Risks: Key risks include below-expected move-in demand, slower overseas revenue ramp-up, and customer churn [12] - Investment Rating: GDS is rated as a "Buy" with a 12-month target price of US$40/HK$39, indicating a potential upside of approximately 26.6% [13] Conclusion GDS Holdings and DayOne have demonstrated strong financial performance in 2Q25, with positive growth metrics and a constructive outlook for the future. Management's focus on capacity expansion and readiness for AI demand positions the companies favorably in the evolving data center market.