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复盘 09、20 年,新能源车行情对机器人有什么启示?
SIASUNSIASUN(SZ:300024)2025-08-21 15:05

Summary of Conference Call on Robotics Industry Insights from Electric Vehicle Development Industry Overview - The robotics industry is currently in its early development stage, similar to the electric vehicle (EV) industry from 2009 to 2010, which was driven by policy support but faced economic challenges [2][3] - By 2025, the robotics supply chain is expected to reach around 1,000 units, with mass production gradually advancing from 2026 to 2030, potentially reaching a shipment volume of one million units by 2030 [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - The experience from the EV sector highlights the critical role of policy stimulation and product capability enhancement for industry growth [1][3] - The EV sector saw significant growth during the policy catalyst period (2009-2011), but growth slowed post-2010 due to diminishing policy effects. This suggests that the robotics sector should focus on long-term growth potential and future profit expectations for valuation [4][5] - The early valuation system for robotics mirrors that of the EV sector, influenced by policy frameworks, with current valuations around 30-40 times earnings, similar to early EV valuations [3][7] - Domestic robotics applications are primarily focused on research demonstrations and government procurement, akin to early EV reliance on state purchases. However, the market potential for robotics is larger due to the absence of limitations like those faced by traditional fuel vehicles [8] Important but Overlooked Content - Different segments within the EV industry showed varying performance, with companies directly related to battery materials experiencing the highest gains. A similar trend is expected in robotics, where core technologies and key components may benefit first, while other segments may lag [6] - The transition from policy-driven to consumer-driven growth is a common characteristic of emerging industries, emphasizing the need for investors to monitor changes across different stages of development [5] - The future outlook for the robotics industry is promising, with anticipated demand growth potentially surpassing that of the EV sector, contingent on breakthroughs in the product chain [9] - Investors are advised to focus on core suppliers and component manufacturers, prioritizing those with high certainty in their offerings, while gradually considering other segments as the industry matures [10][11]