香港银行同业拆借利率反弹至2%；预计短期内下行风险更大-First Read_ Hong Kong Banks _HIBOR rebounds to 2%; anticipating bigger..._

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Hong Kong Banking Sector - Key Indicator: HIBOR (Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate) has rebounded to 2.01% from 1.45% [2][3] Core Insights - Aggregate Balance Decline: The aggregate balance (AB) has decreased from HK$174 billion in May to HK$54 billion, indicating a potential mean reversion in the SOFR to HIBOR spread [2] - NII and NIM Impact: The rebound in HIBOR is expected to support banks' Net Interest Margin (NIM) and Net Interest Income (NII), but these benefits are largely priced in by the market [3] - NII Projections: For 2025, projected NII declines are 7% for Bank of China (Hong Kong), 9% for Hang Seng Bank, and 11% for Bank of East Asia [3] Risk Assessment - Asset Quality Concerns: There is a cautious stance on asset quality, particularly regarding Non-Performing Loan (NPL) risks associated with Hong Kong Commercial Real Estate (CRE) exposure [4] - Credit Cost Guidance: Anticipated upward revisions in credit cost guidance for BOCHK following upcoming results announcements [4] Company Ratings and Price Targets - Bank of China (Hong Kong): Rated Neutral with a price target of HK$36.5, implying a 1.1x 2025E P/BV [5] - Bank of East Asia: Rated Neutral with a price target of HK$12.0, implying a 0.3x 2025E P/BV [5] - Hang Seng Bank: Downgraded to Sell with a price target of HK$102.0, implying a 1.2x 2025E P/BV [5] Market Dynamics - Economic Recovery Risks: Upside risks for BOCHK include faster-than-expected economic recovery in mainland China and Hong Kong, while downside risks involve slower recovery impacting NIM and loan growth [9] - Policy Changes: For BEA, upside risks include strong policy loosening in China's property sector, while downside risks involve worsening NPL trends [10] - Hang Seng Bank Risks: Upside risks include rapid economic recovery and property market turnaround, while downside risks remain significant [11] Additional Considerations - Valuation Methodology: Price targets are derived using a Dividend Discount Model (DDM) based valuation approach [8] - Regulatory and Operational Risks: The banking sector faces risks from regulatory changes, competition, and operational complexities [7] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the Hong Kong banking sector, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors.