2025-08-22 01:00Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Technology, specifically focusing on the Apple supply chain in the Asia Pacific region - Key Companies Mentioned: Apple, Hon Hai, Largan, Lens Tech, Cowell, Zhen Ding, BYD Electronic (BYDE), FII Core Insights and Arguments 1. Supply Chain Stocking for New Models: - New model stocking for 2H25 is slightly above 90 million units, similar to the previous year's 90-95 million units, indicating a stable supply chain outlook [1][12] - Market's previous bearish sentiment (-5-10% YoY) has eased due to relieved tariffs on Apple products [1][12] 2. Upcoming iPhone Models and Specifications: - iPhone 17 (2025): Introduction of a new slim model with titanium casing, upgraded camera specifications, and a higher average selling price (ASP) for certain components [2][21] - iPhone 18 (2026): Anticipation of a foldable model and significant camera upgrades, which could lead to a substantial increase in ASP for mechanical and PCB suppliers [3][22] 3. Share Price Trends: - Historical data shows that supply chain stocks typically rally before product launches and may correct afterward as profits are booked [4][27] - Key suppliers have experienced an average share-price rally of 13% since May, indicating positive market sentiment [4][27] 4. Investment Recommendations: - Maintain "Buy" ratings on Hon Hai, Largan, Lens Tech, Cowell, and Zhen Ding due to their strong positions in the supply chain [5][9] - Upgrade AAC to "Buy" based on expected earnings growth, while downgrading BYDE to "Neutral" due to casing ASP pressures [5][9] Additional Important Insights 1. Market Dynamics: - The share price performance post-launch is influenced by Apple's pricing strategy, consumer feedback, and expectations for future models [28][30] - The upcoming cycles (2025-2027) are expected to be more exciting due to significant form-factor changes and hardware upgrades, which could support supply chain valuations [29][30] 2. Regional Shipment Trends: - iPhone shipments in the Asia Pacific region (excluding China) showed strong growth in 2024, compensating for weaker demand in China [17][19] 3. Component Supply Chain: - A detailed breakdown of key suppliers for various components, highlighting the reliance on both China and non-China suppliers for different parts of the iPhone [25][26] 4. Historical Performance Analysis: - Analysis of past iPhone launches indicates that significant design changes often lead to positive share price movements in the supply chain, while limited changes can result in weaker performance [28][30] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the Apple supply chain's dynamics, upcoming product specifications, and investment recommendations.