居民存款：从“回家”到“再搬家”

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the trends in household deposits in China from 2017 to 2025, highlighting the impact of macroeconomic factors and regulatory changes on wealth allocation among residents [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Rapid Growth of Household Deposits: From 2017 to 2022, household deposits grew rapidly, reaching a peak of 17.8 trillion yuan in 2022, with growth rates increasing from 1.1% to 17.4%. However, growth rates are expected to decline to around 10% by 2025 [1][2]. - Drivers of Deposit Growth: The primary drivers for the increase in deposits include a downturn in the real estate market and a decline in the returns on asset management products. Financial regulatory tightening has also led to a return of funds to bank deposits [1][4]. - Shift in Investment Preferences: As deposit rates decrease and capital market returns improve, residents are diversifying their investment preferences, favoring wealth management products and money market funds. Risk assets like bonds and stocks are expected to attract more funds due to enhanced relative returns in 2024 [1][6]. - Regulatory Impact: Financial regulatory policies have significantly influenced wealth allocation. The tightening of regulations and the implementation of new asset management rules have led to a reduction in the scale of various financial products, causing funds to flow back into bank deposits [5][10]. - Asset Allocation Trends: There has been a notable shift in asset allocation since 2017/2018, with a significant increase in cash deposits, which reached 85% by 2022. Although the investment ratio in financial products and asset management products has rebounded to 31% in 2024, it remains below the levels seen from 2014 to 2017 [7][8]. Other Important Insights - Preference for Low-Risk Products: Low-risk asset management products, such as bank wealth management and money market funds, are increasingly favored by residents due to their higher yields compared to deposits and better liquidity. The bond market's performance in 2023-2024 has also attracted some deposits into bond funds [9]. - Future Monetary Policy Outlook: The future monetary policy is expected to focus on stabilizing growth and the economy, with potential continued interest rate cuts. This is likely to enhance the comparative returns of various financial products, leading to an increased allocation of wealth into money market funds, wealth management, and bonds [10][11]. - Emerging Trends in Wealth Migration: Despite the overall decline in risk asset allocation since 2016, there are signs of emerging trends as the stock market improves, indicating a potential shift in risk appetite among residents [9][11].