2025-08-24 14:47Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The domestic computing power demand is benefiting from the intensifying US-China tech rivalry and the strategy of self-sufficiency, with AI chips becoming a key area of focus. The entire industry chain's self-manufacturing capability has been established, from AI chips to foundry bases, packaging, and PCB boards [1][6][10]. Market Demand and Growth - The total demand for domestic AI chips is projected to reach approximately 500 billion RMB by 2026, with an industry growth rate of at least 30%, potentially leading to the emergence of trillion-yuan market cap leading companies. Currently, the supply of domestic H20 chips is around 500,000 to 600,000 units, with a domestic substitution rate of about 30% [1][8][9]. Technological Advancements - Domestic chips have made significant technological progress, achieving about 90% of the performance of H100 chips. The single-card performance is now sufficient for training, and an ecosystem is beginning to be built [1][10]. The Cambrian 690 is recognized as the strongest domestic AI computing card, capable of reaching 900T computing power under FP16 precision, with no immediate competitors [1][15]. Key Manufacturing Aspects - Attention should be paid to the expansion and yield improvement in the chip foundry segment, as well as the mass supply of advanced packaging technology (Cross L). The PCIe interconnect is another critical area, currently with almost zero domestic production, but some startups are expected to begin mass supply in the second half of this year [1][11][12]. Market Dynamics and Company Insights - The domestic PCIe 4.0/5.0 switch market is dominated by Speed Technology, with a projected market size of approximately 30 billion USD in the next three to five years, maintaining a market share of 60-70% [4][18]. ZTE has undergone significant changes, with expected mobile phone sales and revenue growth, projecting a total profit of nearly 20 billion RMB next year [4][19]. Impact of H20 Chip Events - The H20 chip supply situation has been affected by scrutiny from China on NVIDIA and H20, reflecting the ongoing negotiations in US-China trade talks. China aims to purchase higher-end chips rather than lower-performance H20 chips, indicating a strategic shift in the semiconductor supply chain [5][9]. Future Projections - The supply of domestic H20 chips is expected to double or even triple by next year due to advanced process expansion and yield improvements. The quarterly growth for individual stocks is projected to be three to four times [9][19]. The overall domestic capital expenditure is expected to align with the recovery of chip supply and the increase in high-end chip supply from the US [6][7]. Investment Opportunities - Companies like Cambrian and Speed Technology are highlighted as key investment opportunities due to their strong market positions and growth potential. Cambrian's collaboration with packaging firms and the expected increase in domestic chip production capacity position it favorably in the market [15][17][19].