半导体设备、材料行业研究框架

Summary of Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Industry Research Industry Overview - The semiconductor sector is expected to perform well in 2025, but the valuation uplift for the equipment and materials segments is limited, making them noteworthy for investment opportunities [1][2] - Demand for semiconductor equipment is driven by downstream customer expansions and domestic substitution, with an additional increment for domestic equipment under the self-controlled logic [1][2] Key Insights - Profitability varies across the semiconductor supply chain, with chip manufacturing having the highest profitability, followed by wafer manufacturing, and then semiconductor equipment. Upstream component companies generally have lower profitability than midstream equipment companies [1][3] - Advanced processes are driving continuous growth in the semiconductor equipment market, with capital expenditures (CAPEX) for 28nm to 7nm processes nearly doubling, and demand increasing exponentially [1][11] - The domestic semiconductor market has significant growth potential in advanced processes, supported by strong policy backing, with expectations for incremental opportunities from advanced process construction in the coming years [1][12][13] Market Dynamics - The trend of decoupling between China and the U.S. is accelerating, necessitating reliance on domestic equipment, with wafer fabs needing to invest resources to address their unique challenges for long-term progress [1][16][18] - The materials segment is characterized by a long-term growth potential, with increasing demand driven by new wafer production lines and upgrades to existing lines. Investing in the materials sector is currently seen as a favorable choice [1][20] Technical Complexity - The complexity of semiconductor manufacturing processes, including both front-end and back-end processes, poses challenges for investors. Front-end processes account for about 80% of the overall value, while back-end processes are simpler but still critical [5][6] - Advanced processes have increased the number of manufacturing steps and capital expenditure density significantly, with the cost of equipment depreciation potentially reaching 60%-70% in advanced processes [8][11] Future Trends - The semiconductor equipment market has shown consistent growth since 2016, driven by increased capital expenditure density due to advanced processes, despite cyclical fluctuations [9][10] - The future of the semiconductor equipment industry relies heavily on technological advancements and increased capital expenditures, with expectations for continued growth in profitability and valuation [15] Investment Considerations - The current domestic substitution rate is low at approximately 30%, but the trend of decoupling necessitates increased investment in domestic equipment [18] - The materials market is more fragmented compared to the equipment market, with a diverse range of products and a need for companies to expand internationally to enhance market presence and valuation [19] Conclusion - The semiconductor equipment and materials sectors present unique investment opportunities, driven by technological advancements, policy support, and the necessity for domestic substitution in the face of geopolitical challenges. The focus should be on leading companies within these segments to capitalize on future growth prospects [1][15][20]