锂-七月中国进出口数据

Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan's Lithium Industry Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the lithium industry, specifically detailing the export and import data from China for lithium hydroxide (LiOH) and lithium carbonate. Key Insights on Lithium Hydroxide (LiOH) - Export Decline: In July, lithium hydroxide exports from China fell by 86% year-over-year (y/y) to 1.2kt compared to 9.1kt in the same month last year. This represents the lowest monthly export level for the year [2] - Year-to-Date (YTD) Performance: Net exports for the year to date are 21.2kt, which is 71% lower than the same period last year. Full-year 2024 net exports are projected to be 113kt, down 11% from 2023 [2] - Historical Context: FY2023 net exports were 126.2kt, a 40% increase y/y, while 2022 net exports were 90.3kt, which was 29% higher than 2021 [2][4] Key Insights on Lithium Carbonate - Import Decline: July lithium carbonate imports decreased by 43% y/y to 13.8kt from 24.2kt in the previous year. YTD net imports are 128.7kt, roughly flat compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - Future Projections: Full-year 2024 net imports are expected to be 231kt, a 55% increase compared to 2023. In 2023, net imports were 149.2kt, which was 19% higher y/y [2] - Price Trends: The average import price for lithium carbonate decreased by 1% month-over-month (m/m) and 9% y/y in July, averaging $9,987 per ton [2] Price Trends for LiOH and Lithium Carbonate - LiOH Export Price: The average export price for lithium hydroxide decreased by 8% m/m and 39% y/y in July, averaging $9,961 per ton [2] - Lithium Carbonate Price: The average price for lithium carbonate imports was $9,987 per ton in July, reflecting a downward trend in pricing [2][10] Historical Trade Data - LiOH Trade Data: Historical data shows a significant increase in LiOH exports from 2017 to 2023, with a peak in 2023 at 130.0kt, but a projected decline in 2024 [3][4] - Lithium Carbonate Trade Data: Similar trends are observed in lithium carbonate, with exports peaking in 2023 at 158.7kt, followed by a projected decrease in 2024 [6][7] Additional Observations - Market Dynamics: The significant drop in exports and imports may indicate a shift in market dynamics, possibly due to changes in demand or supply chain disruptions [2] - Future Outlook: The projections for 2024 suggest a cautious outlook for the lithium market, with potential implications for pricing and availability [2][4] This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the J.P. Morgan report on the lithium industry, highlighting trends in exports, imports, and pricing that are essential for understanding the current market landscape.