全球烟草：中国电子烟出口至 7 月 25 日

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Global Tobacco industry, specifically focusing on vapour exports from China as of July 2025. The data is sourced from China Customs and highlights trends in vapour product exports, which are primarily manufactured in China. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Growth Projections for Vapour Sales: The UBS Tobacco Transformation Model estimates vapour retail sales growth of approximately 20% in 2024, reaching $46 billion, with equivalised volumes expected to grow by about 25%, accounting for around 8% of total nicotine sales [1][2][3]. 2. Decline in Global Vapour Exports: Global vapour exports fell by 15.2% in July 2025 compared to 11.7% in June 2025, indicating a deceleration in exports, particularly to the US and Asia, although there was some offset from the UK [2][4]. 3. US Market Trends: In the US, which represents about 40% of global vapour retail sales, export volumes decreased by 19.7% in July 2025, with a notable decline of 13.7% in that month alone. This reflects a significant sequential improvement compared to previous months, suggesting manufacturers may be adapting to increased customs inspections [3][4]. 4. European Market Performance: Exports from Europe (excluding the UK) declined by 12.9% in July 2025, while the UK saw a growth of 3.8% in the same period, potentially due to inventory build-up [4][5]. 5. Asian Market Challenges: Vapour exports from Asia experienced a sharp decline of 30.3% in July 2025, attributed to slower adoption rates and a shift in production to local markets [5][6]. Additional Important Insights 1. Illicit Market Impact: Illicit disposable vapes account for nearly 20% of US nicotine volumes, and a reduction in this segment could benefit tobacco companies, especially given the rapid growth of disposable vapes in recent years [3][4]. 2. Export Volume Trends: The report indicates that vapour export volumes are being affected by various factors, including shifts in consumer preferences, regulatory changes, and competitive dynamics within the tobacco industry [2][3][4]. 3. Valuation and Risk Considerations: The report outlines risks to price targets, including changes in consumer preferences, government regulations, macroeconomic trends, and competitive intensity among tobacco companies [37][38]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the global tobacco industry, particularly in the vapour segment.