电子元件：10 - 12 月起需求变化监测

Summary of the Conference Call on Electronic Components Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the Electronic Components industry in Japan with a specific emphasis on demand shifts and earnings forecasts for key players in the sector [1][4][8]. Key Companies Discussed 1. Ibiden - Rated as Overweight with expectations to maintain a dominant share of NVIDIA's ABF package substrates [6][10]. - Forecasted to maintain nearly 100% market share in FC packages for NVIDIA [9]. 2. TDK - Rated as Overweight with anticipated earnings expansion from high-value-added rechargeable batteries and improved earnings from sensors and magnetic application products [6][10]. 3. Hirose Electric - Rated as Overweight with expected expansion in automotive connectors and recovery in the general industrial machinery business [6][10]. 4. Niterra - Rated as Overweight with continued earnings growth expected from replacement plugs and SPE electrostatic chucks [6][10]. 5. Meiko Electronics - Rated as Overweight with ongoing earnings growth anticipated from expanding capacity for high-layer-count/high-density build-up PCBs [6][10]. Market Outlook - Strong demand is expected to continue through July to September, but the outlook beyond October to December remains uncertain [7]. - The earnings forecast for 2026 emphasizes the need for a solid foundation to be laid from year-end through New Year [1]. Risk-Reward Snapshot - The report provided a risk-reward snapshot ranking companies based on preference: - Ibiden: Target price of 8,300 JPY, current price 6,732 JPY, with a 23% upside potential [7]. - TDK: Target price of 2,100 JPY, current price 1,928 JPY, with a 9% upside potential [7]. - Hirose Electric: Target price of 20,900 JPY, current price 18,700 JPY, with a 12% upside potential [7]. - Niterra: Target price of 5,700 JPY, current price 5,326 JPY, with a 7% upside potential [7]. - Meiko Electronics: Target price of 8,400 JPY, current price 8,380 JPY, with a 0% upside potential [7]. Financial Metrics - The report included detailed financial metrics for each company, including market capitalization, net financial assets, P/E ratios, and ROE forecasts for fiscal years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [10]. Additional Insights - The conference highlighted the significant increase in Capex by hyperscalers, indicating a robust demand environment for electronic components [9]. - The report also discussed the supply chains of MLCC and aluminum capacitors, emphasizing the importance of these components in the broader electronic components market [9]. Conclusion - The electronic components industry in Japan is poised for growth, with several companies showing strong potential for earnings expansion. However, the uncertainty in the latter part of the year necessitates careful monitoring of market conditions and demand shifts.