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中国半导体供应链:2025 年第二季度盈利能力复苏可期,但过剩风险再度上升
2025-08-25 01:38

Summary of China Semiconductor Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - Profitability Recovery: The profitability of the China semiconductor supply chain improved in 2Q25, with 35 out of approximately 200 companies reporting preliminary results for 1H25. Fabless and OSAT companies showed higher net profit year-over-year (YoY) growth compared to sales growth, indicating a continuous margin recovery in 2Q25 [1][7] - Foundry Performance: Foundry suppliers, specifically SMIC and Hua Hong Semi, reported an increase in gross and operating margins in 2Q25 and guided for further increases in wafer average selling prices (ASP) in 3Q25 [1][7] - Demand and Inventory: The improvement in profitability is expected to be supported by solid demand and reduced inventory pressure through 4Q24 and 1H25 [1] Integrated Circuit (IC) Demand and Supply - Muted Demand Growth: IC shipments in China were 13.9 billion units in June 2025, reflecting a -1% YoY change. This growth was significantly lower compared to 19% and 14% YoY in April and May 2025, respectively [2][14] - Supply Growth: IC imports and domestic manufacturing volumes reached 55 billion and 47 billion units in July 2025, representing a YoY increase of +12% and +25%, respectively. The overall IC supply growth accelerated to +15% YoY in July [2][14] - Inventory Pressure: June 2025 marked the first month since August 2024 where IC supply outpaced demand in China, indicating potential rising inventory and chip price pressures for supply chain companies in 2H25 [2][14] NOR Flash Market - Pricing Trends: NOR flash prices remained weak in 2Q25, with a global average unit price of US$0.42 in June 2025, down -7% month-over-month (MoM) and -21% YoY. However, inventory levels among Taiwan suppliers, Macronix and Winbond, are normalizing, which may support price stabilization in 2H25 [3][30][31] Semiconductor Equipment Demand - Recovery in Equipment Demand: Semiconductor equipment imports in China reached US$3.4 billion in July 2025, a +14% YoY increase, indicating a recovery in demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment [2][25] Key Company Performance - SMIC and Hua Hong: SMIC's utilization rate was reported at 93%, while Hua Hong's was at 108% in 2Q25. Both companies confirmed improvements in utilization rates and profitability [8][12] - Profit Margins: The average net profit margin for fabless and OSAT companies was 14.5% in 2Q25, up from about 13% in 2Q24, while memory chip companies reported lean profits or losses [7][13] Conclusion - The China semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, driven by solid demand and improved margins among fabless and OSAT companies. However, there are signs of rising inventory and potential pricing pressures in the second half of 2025, particularly in the IC market. The NOR flash market remains weak, but inventory normalization may lead to price stabilization. The recovery in semiconductor equipment demand is a positive indicator for future growth in the industry [1][2][3][7][25]