2025-08-25 01:39Summary of China Property Weekly Wrap Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese property market, highlighting transaction trends and market sentiments during Week 33 of 2025. Key Highlights - Inventory Buyback Initiatives: Policymakers are preparing to mobilize central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to purchase unsold homes from distressed property developers. The People's Bank of China's Q2 monetary policy report emphasizes the need to enhance existing supportive measures, including the ARH relending program, which has an issuance balance of Rmb16.2 billion by the end of Q3 2024 against a total quota of Rmb300 billion, aimed at stabilizing the housing market and optimizing financing systems for the property sector [1][2]. Market Performance - Transaction Volumes: - Primary market transactions increased by 9% week-over-week (wow) but decreased by 17% year-over-year (yoy). - Secondary market transactions decreased by 2% wow and 1% yoy. - Overall, the market sentiment remained stable, with new home search activities unchanged week-over-week, while secondary home visitor traffic improved by 3% wow. However, secondary price expectations from agents weakened by 0.7 percentage points (pp) wow, marking the second consecutive week of softening [2][5]. Key Data Points - Sales Performance: - New home sales volume averaged +9% wow and -17% yoy, with tier-3 cities and the Pearl River Delta (PRD) outperforming. - Secondary transactions averaged -2% wow and -1% yoy, with negative price appreciation expectations from agents but not homeowners. - Year-to-date (YTD) primary gross floor area (GFA) sold was down 7% yoy, while secondary GFA sold was up 12% yoy [5][25]. Inventory and Valuation Insights - Inventory Levels: - Inventory balance decreased by 0.1% wow and 4.0% from end-2024 levels, with inventory months at 25.8 (compared to an average of 26.0 in July 2025) [35]. - Valuation Trends: - Offshore coverage developers saw an average share price increase of 6% wow (compared to 3% for MSCI China), with CR Land and Greentown outperforming at +11% and +10% wow, respectively. Onshore developers averaged +2% wow [46][48]. Completions and New Starts - Completions: - The GSPC tracker indicates a 20% yoy decline in completions for August 2025, compared to a 29% yoy decline in July 2025 [40]. - New Starts: - New starts are expected to record a mid-teens level yoy decline in August, based on land sales trends in 300 cities and a +2pp wow increase in nationwide cement shipment ratios [40]. Implications for the Market - The report suggests that property sales in approximately 75 cities indicate a likely 17% yoy decline in presales for top-100 developers in August, compared to a 27% decline in July [7]. - The overall sentiment in the property market remains cautious, with ongoing challenges in sales and price expectations, despite some positive movements in specific segments [6][7]. Conclusion - The Chinese property market is experiencing a plateau in transaction volumes, with mixed performance across different city tiers. Policymaker interventions and market stabilization efforts are crucial as the sector navigates ongoing challenges and seeks to transition to a new development model [1][2][6].