全球金属与矿业：中国 2025 年上半年钢铁出口延续 “走得更远” 趋势，价格差异扩大

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Global Metals & Mining, specifically focusing on the steel export market from China Core Insights and Arguments - Chinese Steel Exports Growth: - Chinese steel net exports reached 104 million tonnes in FY'24, a 25% increase from 83 million tonnes in FY'23, which was itself a 46% increase from 57 million tonnes in FY'22. The annualized figure for 1H'25 is projected at 110 million tonnes [1][2] - Price Differentials Impact: - The increase in exports is primarily attributed to near-record price differentials between Chinese steel and global steel prices. Higher absolute price levels and profit spreads have allowed steel exports to travel farther, as transportation costs as a percentage of steel margins have decreased [1][2] - Changing Export Destinations: - The share of steel exports to traditional markets like ASEAN and South Korea has declined. South Korea, which accounted for approximately 14% of China's steel exports over the last decade, saw its share shrink to 8% in FY'24 and is annualizing at 7% in 1H'25. ASEAN's share dropped from 33% to 28-30% in recent years [3][4] - Emerging Markets: - Conversely, exports to Brazil and Saudi Arabia have increased significantly. Saudi Arabia has become the fifth-largest destination for Chinese steel, constituting 4.6% of total exports [3] - Future Projections: - As global price differentials are expected to shrink in 2H'25, a contraction in Chinese steel exports is anticipated, particularly to more distant markets [1] Additional Important Insights - Transportation Costs: - The percentage of transportation costs relative to steel prices has decreased since 2016, facilitating farther travel of steel exports. However, if steel prices normalize, the proportion of exports to ASEAN may increase again [4] - Historical Context: - The data indicates that while current exports are high, they are still below the peak levels seen in 2015, when net exports were significantly higher [2] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the Chinese steel export market, highlighting significant trends, shifts in export destinations, and the impact of pricing dynamics.