人民币：银行间外汇市场动态改善，但人民币升值可能受限

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the foreign exchange dynamics in Asia, specifically China, and the implications for the Renminbi (RMB) and capital flows [1][5][6]. Core Insights 1. Improvement in Trade Settlement: - China's July net FX trade settlement rose significantly to USD 60.9 billion, up from USD 44.0 billion in June, marking an 87.8% ratio of the reported trade surplus after adjusting for RMB trade settlement [2][3]. 2. Exporters' FX Remittances: - Exporters' FX remittances increased to 54.9% of total exports in July, compared to 46.1% in June, indicating a strong recovery in trade flow dynamics [3][4]. 3. Corporate Demand for FX: - Corporate demand for foreign exchange also rose, reaching 51.8% of total imports in July, up from 50.4% in June [3]. 4. BOP Dynamics: - The balance of payments (BOP) dynamics are improving, driven by exporters' FX remittances and a gradual decline in the USD/CNY fixing [4][6]. 5. Capital Flow Forecast: - An improvement in China's major capital flows is expected over the next six months, influenced by the de-escalation of US-China tariff tensions and a softer USD outlook [5][6]. 6. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): - There is a slight recovery in FDI inflows, although they remain weak, with a slowdown in FDI outflows noted [6][15]. 7. Portfolio Inflows: - Foreign portfolio inflows into Chinese equities have increased, with an average of USD 5.3 billion per month in the three months ending in July, attributed to improved sentiment from reduced trade tensions [15][4]. Additional Important Insights 1. FX Deposits: - A temporary decline in financial institutions' FX deposits was observed in July, with a modest decrease of USD 16.6 billion, following significant accumulations in previous months [9][11]. 2. RMB Underperformance Risk: - The potential for RMB underperformance exists if state banks continue to accumulate FX reserves, especially if the USD weakens further [6][11]. 3. Tourism Deficit: - The tourism deficit has remained stable, with projections indicating a slowdown in outflows in the second half of the year [8][6]. 4. Excess FX Hoarding: - An estimated excess FX hoarding of approximately USD 78 billion exists, which could impact future FX remittance dynamics [7][6]. 5. Future Projections: - The net FX trade settlement is projected to improve to a USD 307 billion surplus over the next six months, with upside risks if corporate FX hoarding is unwound more substantially [7][17]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of China's foreign exchange dynamics and capital flows.