电子元件：10 - 12 月起需求变化监测(1)

Summary of the Conference Call on Electronic Components Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the Electronic Components industry in Japan with a specific emphasis on demand shifts and earnings forecasts for key players in the sector [1][4][8]. Key Points Demand and Earnings Outlook - Results for April to June 2025 exceeded forecasts, with strong demand anticipated for July to September 2025. A solid foundation is necessary for earnings expansion in 2026 [1][6]. - The outlook for demand beyond October to December 2025 remains uncertain, indicating potential volatility in the market [7]. Company Ratings and Forecasts - Ibiden: Rated Overweight with expectations to maintain a dominant share of NVIDIA's ABF package substrates. Current price is 6,732 JPY with a target price of 8,300 JPY, indicating a 23% upside [6][10]. - TDK: Also rated Overweight, with earnings expected to expand due to high-value-added rechargeable batteries. Current price is 1,928 JPY with a target price of 2,100 JPY, suggesting a 9% upside [6][10]. - Hirose Electric: Rated Overweight, benefiting from the expansion of automotive connectors. Current price is 18,700 JPY with a target price of 20,900 JPY, indicating a 12% upside [6][10]. - Niterra: Expected to see continued earnings growth for replacement plugs and SPE electrostatic chucks. Current price is 5,326 JPY with a target price of 5,700 JPY, suggesting a 7% upside [6][10]. - Meiko Electronics: Rated Overweight with continued earnings growth anticipated from expanding capacity for high-layer-count/high-density build-up PCBs. Current price is 8,380 JPY with a target price of 8,400 JPY, indicating a 0% upside [6][10]. Risk-Reward Snapshot - The report includes a risk-reward snapshot ranking companies by preference, with Ibiden and TDK at the top, followed by Hirose Electric and Niterra. Companies like Murata Manufacturing and Hamamatsu Photonics are rated Equal-Weight, indicating a more cautious outlook [7][10]. Market Trends - The MLCC (Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitor) market is highlighted, with expectations for Murata's market share to continue rising at a mild rate in the mid to long term [9]. - Capex by hyperscalers has significantly increased, indicating a positive trend for electronic components [9]. Financial Metrics - The report provides detailed financial metrics for various companies, including P/E ratios, EV/EBITDA, and ROE, which are essential for evaluating investment opportunities [10]. Additional Insights - The conference emphasized the importance of monitoring demand shifts and the potential impact of macroeconomic factors on the electronic components market [1][9]. - Analysts noted the need for investors to consider potential conflicts of interest when interpreting research from firms like Morgan Stanley [4][5]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and financial forecasts from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the electronic components industry in Japan.