全球电力设备：HVDC- 一种被忽视的技术，助力能源转型突破瓶颈

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) technology, which is critical for the energy transition and efficient power transmission over long distances [2][6][9] - The global demand for HVDC systems is surging due to rising renewable energy deployment and the need for cross-border electricity interconnections [2][9] Core Insights - Rising Transmission Capex: Global transmission capital expenditure (capex) is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~15%+ from FY23-30, driven by increasing power demand and renewable energy projects [6][9] - Price Increases: Prices for transformers and switchgears in the US have increased by 70% and 60% respectively since 2021, with lead times for HV transformers extending from ~1 year in 2021 to over 3 years now [6][9] - Market Dynamics: The Western HVDC market is dominated by three major players: Hitachi, GE Vernova, and Siemens Energy, which control 90% of the European market share [6][9] - Supply Constraints: There is a significant supply constraint for HVDC equipment, with lead times for key components like converter valves reaching ~10 years [6][9] Growth Opportunities - Asian Players: Companies in Asia, such as LS Electric, Hyosung Heavy, Nari Tech, and Xuji, are well-positioned to capture market share due to their capacity expansion and local technology development [2][9] - European Market Growth: The European HVDC market is projected to grow at a CAGR of over 40%, increasing from 47GW in 2024 to 116GW in 2030 [6][9] - Offshore Wind Projects: European offshore wind projects are expected to be a significant growth driver for HVDC technology, with ~82% of offshore wind capacity in Germany anticipated to be connected via HVDC systems [41][43] Competitive Landscape - Oligopoly in Europe: The HVDC market in Europe is characterized by high barriers to entry, with established players dominating the landscape [53] - Chinese Market: In China, state-owned enterprises like Nari, Xuji, and XD lead the market, with Nari holding a ~50% market share in converter valves [56] - Korean Developments: Korean companies are increasingly engaging in the HVDC market, with LS Electric and Hyosung Heavy making significant advancements in localizing HVDC technology [61] Additional Insights - Technological Advancements: HVDC technology is becoming more favorable due to its cost-effectiveness over long distances and its ability to enhance grid stability [34][41] - Investment in Infrastructure: The construction of HVDC facilities is essential for managing grid congestion and integrating renewable energy sources into the power system [38][41] Conclusion - The HVDC technology sector presents significant investment opportunities, particularly for Asian companies looking to expand their market presence amid rising global demand and supply constraints in the Western market [2][9][41]