全球烟草：中国电子烟出口至 7 月 25 日(1)

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Global Tobacco and Vapour Products - Focus: Monthly vapour volume export tracker using data from China Customs to monitor the vapour category's progress Core Insights and Arguments - Growth Projections: The UBS Tobacco Transformation Model estimates vapour retail sales growth of approximately +20% in 2024, reaching $46 billion, with equivalised volumes expected to grow by about +25%, constituting around 8% of total nicotine sales [1][2] - Export Trends: - Global vapour exports fell by -15.2% in July 2025 compared to -11.7% in June 2025, indicating a deceleration in exports to the US and a significant decline in exports to Asia, partially offset by growth in the UK [2] - US vapour exports decreased by -19.7% in July 2025, with a notable sequential improvement in July's export volumes being 2.7 times that of June [3] - Europe (excluding the UK) saw a decline of -12.9% in vapour exports in July 2025, while the UK experienced a growth of +3.8% [4] - Asia's vapour exports dropped by -30.3% in July 2025, reflecting slower adoption rates and a shift in production [5] Additional Important Insights - Market Dynamics: The decline in vapour exports is attributed to various factors, including increased customs inspections in the US, which may lead manufacturers to shift from air freight to sea freight [3] - Illicit Market Impact: Illicit disposable vapes account for nearly 20% of US nicotine volumes, and a reduction in this segment could benefit tobacco companies, especially given the rapid growth of disposable vapes in recent years [3] - Regional Performance: - Exports to Germany, France, and Spain showed growth despite the overall decline in Europe ex-UK [4] - The UK’s growth in exports could indicate inventory build-up, with export volumes increasing by +54.6% [4] Risks and Valuation Considerations - Risks: Potential risks to price targets include changes in consumer preferences, government regulations, macroeconomic trends, competitive intensity, and commodity cost fluctuations [37] - Valuation Method: A multiples-based approach is utilized for setting target prices, considering factors such as volume change, organic sales growth, and tobacco transformation [38] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the global tobacco and vapour products industry, along with significant trends and risks.