全球金属与矿业：中国 2025 年上半年钢铁出口延续 “走得更远” 趋势，价格差异扩大(1)

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Global Metals & Mining, specifically focusing on the steel export market from China Key Insights 1. Steel Export Growth: Chinese steel net exports reached 104 million tonnes in FY'24, a 25% increase from 83 million tonnes in FY'23, which was itself a 46% increase from 57 million tonnes in FY'22. The annualized figure for 1H'25 is projected at 110 million tonnes [1][2][3] 2. Price Differentials Impact: The increase in exports is primarily attributed to near-record price differentials between Chinese steel and global steel prices. Higher absolute price levels and profit spreads have allowed steel exports to travel farther, as transportation costs as a percentage of steel margins have decreased [1][2] 3. Changing Export Destinations: The share of steel exports to traditional markets like ASEAN and South Korea has declined. South Korea, which accounted for approximately 14% of China's steel exports over the last decade, saw its share shrink to 8% in FY'24 and is annualizing at 7% in 1H'25. ASEAN's share also decreased from 33% to 28-30% in recent years [3][4] 4. Emerging Markets: In contrast, exports to Brazil and Saudi Arabia have increased significantly. Saudi Arabia has become the fifth-largest destination for Chinese steel, constituting 4.6% of total exports [3] 5. Future Projections: As global price differentials are expected to shrink in 2H'25, a contraction in Chinese steel exports is anticipated, particularly to more distant markets [1] Additional Considerations - Transportation Costs: The percentage of transportation costs relative to steel prices has decreased since 2016, which has facilitated the trend of steel traveling farther. However, if steel prices normalize, the proportion of exports to ASEAN may increase again [4] - Historical Context: The current export levels are still below the peak levels seen in 2015, indicating that while there is growth, it is not at an all-time high [2] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the state of the steel export market from China, highlighting growth trends, changing dynamics in export destinations, and future expectations.