中国房地产周度总结： 交易在稳定市场情绪下仍持平__

Summary of China Property Weekly Wrap Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese property market, highlighting transaction trends and market sentiments during Week 33. Key Highlights - Inventory Buyback Initiatives: Policymakers are preparing to mobilize central State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) to purchase unsold homes from distressed property developers. The People's Bank of China's Q2 monetary policy report emphasizes the need to enhance existing supportive measures, including the ARH relending program, which has an issuance balance of Rmb16.2 billion by the end of Q3 2024 against a total quota of Rmb300 billion, aimed at stabilizing the housing market and optimizing financing systems for the property sector [1][2]. Market Performance - Transaction Volume: - Primary market transactions increased by 9% week-over-week (wow), while secondary market transactions decreased by 2% wow. Year-to-date (YTD) figures show a 17% decline in primary market volume and a flat performance in the secondary market compared to the previous year [2][5]. - New home search activities remained unchanged, while secondary home visitor traffic improved by 3% wow. However, secondary price expectations from agents weakened by 0.7 percentage points (pp) wow, marking a second consecutive week of softening [2][5]. Key Data Points - Sales Performance: - New home sales volume averaged +9% wow but -17% year-over-year (yoy), with tier-3 cities and the Pearl River Delta (PRD) outperforming other tiers. - Secondary transactions averaged -2% wow and -1% yoy, with negative price appreciation expectations from agents but not homeowners [5][6]. - Year-to-date primary Gross Floor Area (GFA) sold was down 7% yoy, while secondary GFA sold was up 12% yoy on a city-average basis [5][6]. Inventory and Valuation Insights - Inventory Levels: - Inventory balance decreased by 0.1% wow and 4.0% from end-2024 levels, with inventory months at 25.8, slightly below the average of 26.0 in July 2025 [7][35]. - Valuation Trends: - Offshore developers saw an average share price increase of 6% wow, outperforming the MSCI China index, while onshore developers averaged 2% wow. The average discount to end-2025 estimated Net Asset Value (NAV) is 29% for offshore and 18% for onshore developers [7][46][48]. Completions and New Starts - Completions: - A projected 20% yoy decline in completions for August 2025, compared to a 29% decline in July 2025 [40]. - New Starts: - Expected mid-teens level yoy decline in new starts for August, based on land sales trends and cement shipment ratios [7][40]. Implications for Home Appliances and Other Sectors - Home appliance sales are likely to remain flat yoy in August, based on secondary sales trends in approximately 20 cities [7]. Conclusion - The Chinese property market is experiencing a plateau in transaction volumes, with mixed performance across different city tiers. Policymakers are taking steps to stabilize the market through inventory buybacks and supportive monetary policies. Valuations remain attractive, with significant discounts to NAV, indicating potential investment opportunities in the sector [1][2][7][48].