Envicool(SZ:002837)2025-08-25 03:24Summary of Shenzhen Envicool Technology Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Shenzhen Envicool Technology (002837.SZ) - Market Cap: Rmb63.6 billion / $8.9 billion - Industry: China Industrial Tech & Machinery Key Points and Arguments 1. Target Price and Market Share: - Target price raised to Rmb70.80 from Rmb65.66, indicating a 7.8% upside potential [1] - Expected to capture 5% of the global server liquid cooling market by 2027 and 10% by 2030 [1][18] 2. Sales and Net Income Growth: - Forecasted sales and net income CAGRs of 38% and 47% respectively from 2025E to 2030E, revised up from previous estimates of 31% and 32% [2][18] - Sales and net income estimates for 2025-2030 revised up by 11%-45% and 3%-74% respectively [2][18] 3. Recent Performance: - Server cooling and other sales grew 216% year-over-year in 1H25 [19] - Share price increased by 94% since late July, driven by market expectations of entering the global computing equipment supply chain [2] 4. Catalysts and Risks: - Upcoming NVIDIA earnings and potential new AI chip launch expected to support domestic demand [3] - Risks include slow R&D progress with key customers and geopolitical changes affecting supply chains [3][17] 5. Investment and Recruitment: - Active recruitment in Southeast Asia and the US, with new subsidiaries established in California and Texas [19] - Investment in expanding liquid cooling capacity across regions [19] 6. Key Qualifications: - Achieved key qualifications with NVIDIA and Intel for liquid cooling products, enhancing credibility and market access [19] 7. Margin Improvement: - Expected net profit margin to reach 12.4% by 2027E, up from previous forecasts of 11.1% [21] - Improvement driven by higher overseas exposure and better operating leverage [21] 8. Scenario Analysis: - Implied upside of 118% if capturing 10% of the global server liquid cooling market by 2027E, with a downside of 38% if unable to expand overseas [25] Additional Important Information 1. Financial Projections: - Revenue projections for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are Rmb6,733.7 million, Rmb10,668.1 million, and Rmb15,259.4 million respectively [4][15] - EPS projections for the same years are Rmb0.68, Rmb1.27, and Rmb1.95 respectively [4][15] 2. Capex and Working Capital: - Anticipated increase in capex by 72% on average from 2025E to 2030E, with a capex/revenue ratio of 6.5% [26] - Improvement in working capital management expected, with reduced receivables days and cash conversion cycles [25] 3. Market Position: - Envicool's liquid cooling products gaining recognition among leading chipmakers and computing equipment manufacturers [19] - The company is positioned as a tier-2 manufacturer within the NVIDIA ecosystem, supporting major suppliers [19] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's growth potential, market strategies, and financial outlook.