大宗反内卷情绪退潮，工业品或重回基本面驱动

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the black commodity sector, particularly focusing on steel and coal markets, and the implications of the anti-involution policy on these industries [1][5][7]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Market Conditions: The black commodity sector may face downward pressure in Q4 due to weakening favorable factors, with steel and steel billet inventories accumulating rapidly and terminal demand not showing significant recovery [1][2][3]. 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics: Initial optimistic expectations for iron ore supply growth have not materialized, with actual increases limited to 10 million to 15 million tons. Coal supply has been restricted due to overproduction checks, leading to short-term price stability for raw materials [1][3][4]. 3. Profit Distribution Shift: The implementation of the anti-involution policy has shifted profit distribution from downstream to upstream, with steel mills maintaining strong production despite coal supply constraints [5][6]. 4. Investment Opportunities: Investors are advised to consider buying iron ore and coking coal on dips, while closely monitoring changes in demand, particularly from exports and manufacturing sectors [6][8]. 5. Policy Risks: Accumulating policy risks, especially regarding domestic long-term orders, are significant. The marginal effects of policies like trade-in programs are diminishing, and corporate long-term loans are not optimistic, suggesting a potential slowdown in manufacturing demand in Q4 [7][9]. 6. Future Price Trends: The future trajectory of black commodities will be influenced by the expansion of raw material supply curves. Recent price increases in iron ore and coking coal have stimulated marginal supply releases, with expectations of new production from major projects in Q4 [8][9]. Additional Important Content - Steel Industry Performance: The steel industry has shown complex performance under the anti-involution backdrop, with initial expectations of reduced crude steel output not materializing due to improved profit margins from lower raw material prices [5][6]. - Long-term Outlook: The long-term outlook for the black commodity sector remains cautious, with a need to focus on demand-side changes and the effective implementation of policies to manage potential risks [1][4][6]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future expectations of the black commodity sector, particularly in relation to steel and coal markets.