2025-08-26 01:19Summary of China Spirits Tracker Conference Call Industry Overview - The spirits industry is experiencing a recovery in market sentiment, with investors adopting a "worst is over" perspective as the impact of anti-graft policies normalizes [1][1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) gap between spirits and A-share indices is nearing a decade low, approximately 2-3x, which is an 18% premium compared to the last decade average of 103% [1][1] - Northbound fund flows into spirits stocks remain low as of the end of Q2 2025 [1][1] Demand and Consumption Trends - Retail demand is gradually improving month-on-month, although banquet consumption is still significantly affected by anti-graft policies, with an estimated 30-50% of commercial banquet demand under policy impact [1][1] - A 30% decline in retail sales for spirits was observed in August due to these ongoing impacts [1][1] - Distributors are cautious with channel stocking, leading to minimal prepayments in July and August [1][1] Company-Specific Insights - Shede Spirits: Despite policy challenges, management reported a sequential improvement in retail demand, with some SKUs showing positive bottle-open ratios year-on-year in August [1][1] - The company remains cautiously optimistic about sell-through performance during the upcoming peak seasons [1][1] - Regional performance varies, with Jiangsu and Guangdong under pressure, while Shandong, Hebei, and Sichuan show resilience [1][1] Price Trends - Moutai: The wholesale price of original case Feitian Moutai decreased by RMB 65 from RMB 1,910 to RMB 1,845, while unpacked prices fell by RMB 55 from RMB 1,875 to RMB 1,820 [5][5] - Other Moutai SKUs also saw price declines, with significant drops in various products [5][5] - Wuliangye: The wholesale price decreased by RMB 90 to RMB 860 and RMB 80 to RMB 835 for different product lines [5][5] - Guojiao 1573: Prices remained stable at RMB 835 [5][5] Market Focus - The upcoming peak retail season, particularly around the Mid-Autumn Festival on October 6, 2025, is a key focus for the industry [1][1] - The direction of future policies, including property-related policies and clarifications on anti-graft measures, will significantly influence market dynamics [1][1] Additional Developments - Moutai launched a new full-case specification on August 14, 2025, priced 30% lower than previous offerings [17][17] - ZJLD's chairman is actively building personal branding and engaging with merchants to boost sales [17][17] - Gujing launched a new product targeting younger consumers, emphasizing a minimalist design and mix-drinking scenarios [17][17] Conclusion - The spirits industry is navigating through a challenging environment with cautious optimism as demand begins to recover. Key players are adjusting strategies to adapt to changing market conditions and consumer preferences while keeping an eye on regulatory impacts and upcoming seasonal opportunities [1][1][1]