全球人工智能供应链更新；亚洲半导体关键机遇-Greater China Semiconductors Global AI Supply Chain Updates; Key Opportunities in Asia Semi

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Greater China Semiconductors industry, particularly in the context of AI supply chain updates and investment opportunities in the semiconductor sector [1][3]. Core Insights - The industry view has been upgraded to "Attractive" for the second half of 2025, with a strong preference for AI-related semiconductors over non-AI counterparts [1][3]. - Concerns regarding semiconductor tariffs and foreign exchange impacts are diminishing, leading to expectations of further sector re-rating [1][3]. - Key investment themes for 2026 are being previewed, indicating a proactive approach to future opportunities [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - Top picks in the AI semiconductor space include TSMC, Winbond, Alchip, Aspeed, MediaTek, KYEC, ASE, FOCI, Himax, and ASMPT [5]. - Non-AI recommendations include Novatek, OmniVision, Realtek, NAURA Tech, AMEC, ACMR, Silergy, SG Micro, SICC, and Yangjie [5]. - Companies like UMC, ASMedia, Nanya Tech, Vanguard, WIN Semi, and Macronix are rated as equal weight or underweight [5]. Market Dynamics - AI cannibalization may affect the recovery in the second half of 2025 due to tariff costs, but a decline in semiconductor inventory days historically signals positive stock price appreciation [5]. - The introduction of DeepSeek technology is expected to drive demand for AI inference, although there are concerns about the sufficiency of domestic GPU supply [5]. - The ramp-up of China’s fab supply is contributing to a prolonged downcycle in mature node foundry and niche memory sectors [5]. Long-term Demand Drivers - The demand for AI semiconductors is expected to accelerate due to generative AI applications spreading across various verticals [5]. - Price elasticity in technology products is anticipated to stimulate demand, indicating a potential for growth in the sector [5]. Valuation Insights - A detailed valuation comparison across various semiconductor segments, including foundry, back-end, memory, and integrated device manufacturers (IDM), is provided, highlighting key metrics such as P/E ratios, EPS growth, and return on equity [6][7]. - TSMC is projected to have AI semiconductors account for approximately 34% of its revenue by 2027 [26]. Foreign Exchange Impact - The appreciation of the TWD against the USD could negatively impact gross margins and operating profit margins for companies like TSMC, with a 1% appreciation translating to a 40 basis points downside in gross margin [34]. - Despite these concerns, the overall structural profitability of TSMC is not expected to be significantly affected [34]. Additional Considerations - The conference highlighted the importance of memory stock prices as leading indicators for logic semiconductors, reinforcing the attractive industry view on Greater China semiconductors [22]. - The forecast for the top six companies' capital expenditures is expected to grow by 62% year-over-year, reaching RMB 373 billion [39]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Greater China semiconductor industry.