美国关税影响追踪-波动趋势延续；短期进口疲软可能性存在-US Tariff Impact Tracker_ Volatile Trends Continue; Near-Term Import Weakness Possible

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the impact of tariffs on global supply chains, particularly freight flows from China to the USA, highlighting ongoing volatility and potential near-term weaknesses in imports [1][2][4]. Core Observations - Laden vessels from China to the USA decreased by 5% sequentially and 21% year-over-year (YoY) [3][8]. - Expected imports into the Port of Los Angeles are projected to decline by 15% in the upcoming week, with a further anticipated drop of 31% two weeks later [3][36]. - Rail intermodal volumes on the West Coast saw a 1% YoY decline, indicating a potential shift in import trends [3][43]. - Ocean container rates fell by 10% sequentially and are down 76% YoY, reflecting significant pressure on shipping costs [3][32]. Tariff Impact and Future Projections - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs may lead shippers and retailers to delay orders, potentially resulting in an underwhelming peak season for freight volumes and revenues [5][6]. - A potential re-stock event in 2026 could occur if consumer spending remains resilient during the 2025 holiday season, which would positively impact freight flows and margins [5][6]. Stock Recommendations - The report suggests that transport stocks may face downward pressure in the second half of 2025 if consumer demand does not increase [6][7]. - Freight forwarders like EXPD and CHRW are expected to benefit from volatility and potential surges in demand due to tariff-related delays [6][7]. - Parcel services (UPS and FDX) are also positioned to capitalize on increased demand for air freight during this period [6][7]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of analyzing high-frequency data to understand trade volumes and pricing trends, cautioning against drawing conclusions from short-term fluctuations [2][8]. - The Logistics Managers Index indicates that upstream inventories are expanding while downstream retail inventories are contracting, suggesting a potential mismatch in supply chain dynamics [70][71]. - The Supply Chain Congestion Tracker indicates that overall fluidity levels are returning to pre-COVID baselines, reflecting improvements in logistics [48][50]. Conclusion - The ongoing volatility in freight flows from China to the USA, influenced by tariff policies and consumer demand, presents both risks and opportunities for investors in the transport sector. The potential for a re-stock event in 2026 could provide a favorable outlook if consumer resilience persists [5][6].