中国材料行业 - 2025 年实地需求监测- 钢材库存与消费数据-China Materials_ 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #123 – Steel Inventory and Consumption Data

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Materials industry, specifically the steel sector and its demand trends in China [1] Core Insights and Arguments - Demand Recovery Expectations: Market expectations for a demand recovery in the steel sector remain cautious, with the current sector pecking order being aluminum > steel > copper > thermal coal > battery > gold > lithium > cement [1] - Steel Production Data: - For the week of August 15 to August 21, total steel production in China was 8.8 million tons (mt), reflecting a 0.7% week-over-week (WoW) increase and a 13.6% year-over-year (YoY) increase. - Breakdown of production: - Rebar: 2.1 mt (-2.6% WoW, +33.7% YoY) - Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC): 3.3 mt (+3.1% WoW, +4.8% YoY) - Cold-Rolled Coil (CRC): 0.9 mt (-0.1% WoW, +12.6% YoY) [1] - Year-to-Date Production: - Total steel production from the beginning of the year to date was 291.4 mt, showing a 0.1% YoY decrease. - Year-to-date production breakdown: - Rebar: 72.6 mt (-1.8% YoY) - HRC: 108.8 mt (+0.7% YoY) - CRC: 29.4 mt (+2.6% YoY) [1] - Steel Inventory Levels: - As of August 21, China's steel inventory stood at 14.4 mt, which is a 1.8% WoW increase but a 12.2% YoY decrease. - Inventory breakdown: - Steel mills: 4.2 mt (-0.3% WoW, -5.4% YoY) - Traders: 10.2 mt (+2.7% WoW, -14.8% YoY) - Total inventory of rebar, HRC, and CRC was 6.1 mt, 3.6 mt, and 1.4 mt respectively, with varying changes WoW and YoY [1] - Apparent Consumption: - For the week of August 15 to August 21, apparent steel consumption was 8.5 mt, a 2.6% WoW increase and a 2.7% YoY increase. - Breakdown of apparent consumption: - Rebar: 1.9 mt (+2.6% WoW, -2.3% YoY) - HRC: 3.2 mt (+2.1% WoW, +0.8% YoY) - CRC: 0.9 mt (+1.7% WoW, +8.2% YoY) [1] - Year-to-Date Apparent Consumption: - Year-to-date apparent consumption was 288.4 mt, reflecting a 0.1% YoY decrease. - Breakdown: - Rebar: 70.5 mt (-3.7% YoY) - HRC: 108.3 mt (+1.6% YoY) - CRC: 29.5 mt (+4.8% YoY) [1] Additional Important Information - The report utilizes data from Mysteel, a key source for steel market information in China [1] - The analysis indicates a mixed outlook for the steel industry, with some segments showing growth while others are declining, highlighting the need for careful monitoring of market trends and inventory levels [1]