中国市场 - 即便过去一年已涨 42%，仍有三大理由保持看涨-JPM _ CHINA - 3x reasons to stay bullish, even post +42% past 1y..

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Chinese equity market, which has seen a significant increase of +42% over the past year and +26% year-to-date in USD [1] Core Arguments 1. Equity vs Rate Correlation - There is a bullish disconnect between equities and rates in China, typically positively correlated through the cycle. However, at policy tipping points, equities can rally while rates remain low due to adequate policy easing. This signals the beginning of a cyclical inflection, similar to the US scenario from 2010-2012 [1] 2. Liquidity Uplift - China's money supply is rising, with M1 growth increasing from 0% earlier this year to over 5% and M2 growth from 7% to nearly 9%. This increase in liquidity is expected to lead to higher asset prices. Additionally, excess liquidity in China has risen from 9.1% of GDP in 3Q24 to 12.6% in 2Q25 [7] 3. October Plenary - The upcoming October Plenary will be crucial for understanding China's economic direction, particularly regarding the 15th Five-Year Plan. Key areas of focus may include supporting consumption and improving supply/demand balance. The shift from a supply-side focus to a more balanced approach is anticipated to take years, not months [12] Additional Insights - A focus on consumer sectors is recommended, as companies like Anta (9.5x EV/EBITDA), Yum China (9.4x), Galaxy Entertainment (8.5x), and CR Beer (7.5x) are trading at attractive multiples. This suggests potential for significant upward movement if consumption is prioritized in policy discussions [13] - The anti-involution policy is seen as a long-term strategy, indicating a shift in focus from supply-side growth to a more sustainable economic model [12] Conclusion - The overall sentiment remains bullish on the Chinese equity market, driven by favorable liquidity conditions, potential policy shifts towards consumption, and historical parallels with previous market cycles in the US. Investors are encouraged to monitor developments closely, particularly the outcomes of the October Plenary [1][7][12][13]