重申生猪新范式，继续推荐核心龙头

Summary of the Conference Call on the Swine Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the swine farming industry, highlighting a new paradigm in pig farming practices and market dynamics [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments New Paradigm Characteristics - The new paradigm in swine farming is characterized by: - Converging price fluctuations, with maximum price increases shrinking from over 300% in 2018 to 58% by 2024 [1][2]. - Shortened cycles, with production cycles reducing from four years to one to two years [1][2]. - Decreased volatility, with seasonal patterns disrupted, shifting peak prices from pre-Spring Festival to the third and fourth quarters [1][2]. Investment Logic and Industry Structure - The restructuring of the industry favors large-scale, low-cost leading companies, which are seen as scarce assets with both growth and value attributes increasing [3][5]. - Smaller companies are losing their profit opportunities as high pig prices become less predictable, leading to a market share consolidation among larger firms [3][10]. Traditional Price Analysis Framework - The traditional framework for analyzing pig prices is becoming obsolete due to: - The failure of the correlation between the number of breeding sows and prices ten months later [6][7]. - Frequent discrepancies between futures and spot prices, with significant deviations noted in forecasts for 2023 and 2024 [6][7]. Speculative Farming Behavior - Speculative behaviors, such as secondary fattening and delaying sales, have increased short-term volatility from 25% to 40% [8]. - However, policy measures are expected to reduce these speculative practices, potentially leading to lower long-term volatility [9]. Policy Impact - Current policies encourage farms to lower pig weights and promote the purchase of pigs at standard weights, which diminishes the economic benefits of speculative practices [9]. - Misjudgments in price predictions can lead to significant losses for farms, especially as feed conversion efficiency declines in later stages [9]. Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies should shift from traditional cyclical thinking to a combined focus on cycles and value, emphasizing undervalued opportunities [12][13]. - Recommended investment targets include: - National leaders like Wen's Foodstuffs and large-scale self-breeding farms, which have strong cost control and large-scale output advantages [14]. - Regional leaders such as Dekang Agriculture and COFCO Joycome, which exhibit strong competitiveness and stable profitability in the current market [14]. Conclusion - The swine farming industry is undergoing significant changes, with a new paradigm emerging that alters traditional investment logic and market dynamics. The focus is shifting towards large, efficient producers while smaller players face increasing challenges.