全球市场 去美元化：亚洲信贷投资者的渐进之路 -Global Markets Daily_ De-Dollarization A Gradual Path For Asia Credit Investors (Ho)

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus has shifted among Asia credit investors from "US Exceptionalism" to "De-Dollarization" over the past six months, indicating a growing interest in non-USD assets and hedging USD FX exposures [2][5][16] Core Insights - The trend of "De-Dollarization" is expected to be gradual rather than abrupt, influenced by structural factors such as current account surpluses in larger economies and aging populations, which will likely sustain demand for foreign fixed income assets [5][6][10] - Despite a decrease in foreign bond purchases by insurance funds in Taiwan and Japan, these funds still hold significant positions in foreign bonds, indicating a lack of viable alternatives to USD bonds [5][7][10] - The weak Dollar is anticipated to encourage diversification away from USD assets, creating opportunities for local currency credit markets to expand, particularly in CNH and AUD bonds [16][10] Important Data Points - Cumulative capital outflows into foreign bonds from Asia have been dominated by larger economies like Japan, Taiwan, Mainland China, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Korea [6][9] - Foreign securities held by Taiwan insurance companies have stagnated around USD 700 billion, while Japan's foreign bond holdings have decreased from USD 1 trillion in March 2021 to USD 741 billion by March 2025 [7][10] - The issuance of CNH bonds reached a record of RMB 537 billion (USD 75 billion) in 2024, and AUD bond issuance was AUD 70 billion (USD 45 billion) [16][19][20] Additional Insights - Retail investors in Taiwan have shown increased interest in international bond funds, with holdings rising by approximately USD 50 billion over the past three years to USD 160 billion, suggesting a slow but ongoing shift away from USD assets [13] - The USD-denominated bond market remains the largest and most liquid globally, making it challenging to find suitable domestic alternatives that offer comparable yields [13][16] - The ongoing demographic changes and economic conditions in Asia suggest that demand for foreign fixed income assets will persist in the near future [6][10]